Rivian Automotive Stock (RIVN) Goes Rangebound as Q1 Beat Meets Cautious Outlook

EV maker Rivian Automotive (RIVN) delivered surprisingly strong Q1 2025 results last week, and yet, market participants chose to focus on management’s forward guidance, which has put the stock into rangebound mode. The company reported a significant revenue boost while its loss per share narrowed to $0.41, which was much better than the anticipated $0.76 loss and marks substantial progress toward profitability.

Perhaps most encouraging was Rivian’s second consecutive quarter of gross profit, reaching $206 million. This achievement triggered a major milestone: a $1 billion investment from Volkswagen (VWAGY) expected to close by June 30. With $8.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, Rivian appears well-positioned to weather near-term market instability.

Despite these positive developments, Rivian’s stock responded with a dip in trading the following day, only to reclaim that lost ground the day after, leaving the stock essentially flat. The market’s tepid reaction reflects concerns about the company’s adjusted guidance and broader industry challenges.

I am bullish on the stock over the long term, but caution that this one will require significant patience and intestinal fortitude, and is not for those who aren’t up for a long car trip along a bumpy (but scenic) highway.

The Path to Profitability Shows Progress

Rivian reported a $22,600 year-over-year cost reduction per vehicle in Q1 2025, a significant improvement in manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies. Meanwhile, revenue from software and services surged 258% to $318 million. The combination of these is resulting in a growing high-margin business segment.

Strategic partnerships are also important in Rivian’s growth. Volkswagen’s investment is a significant milestone, and Rivian continues to benefit from a $6.6 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan to support its manufacturing expansion plans.

Despite this progress, the company still faces supply chain vulnerabilities (especially for battery materials and semiconductors), substantial cash burn (with negative free cash flow exceeding $5 billion over the past year), competition from both established automakers and other EV startups, and risks related to scaling production and launching new models.

The company’s planned one-month production halt later this year for retooling its Illinois facility to prepare for the R2 model launch will temporarily impact output, but it is necessary for long-term growth.

Tariffs Cast a Shadow on Delivery Targets

Despite the solid Q1 results, management let the air out of the tires with a significant revision to delivery projections, lowering its 2025 target to 40,000-46,000 vehicles from its previous guidance of 46,000-51,000. The reduction was driven primarily by the anticipated impacts of new tariffs.

U.S. tariffs on imported auto parts, particularly batteries and semiconductors from Asia, can create a ripple effect throughout Rivian’s operations and increase production costs by several thousand dollars per vehicle. The Wall Street Journal has reported EV sales grinding to a halt in April, as this issue bites other players in the EV market.

In response to these challenges, Rivian has raised its capital expenditure forecast to $1.8-1.9 billion, up from $1.6-1.8 billion, to reflect the higher component costs and investments needed to adapt supply chains and manufacturing processes to the changing trade landscape.

RIVN’s Small But Growing Market Position

Rivian currently holds approximately 2.9% of the U.S. electric vehicle market, making it a significant but minor player compared to Tesla’s dominant 50% share. Globally, Rivian’s footprint is even smaller at roughly 0.23% of the EV market.

The company delivered about 8,640 vehicles in Q1 and aims for 40,000-46,000 in 2025, compared to Tesla’s approximately 2 million annual deliveries. This scale difference underscores Rivian’s position as a relative startup in the early stages of growth and suggests significant expansion potential.

Rivian trades at approximately 2.5x sales, a relative premium for a company that’s not yet profitable, yet substantially lower than Tesla’s 9.5x sales multiple.

The EV market is projected to reach 26% of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030, and Rivian has opportunities to grow with the market while capturing share from traditional automakers. It is a rising tide that could lift all boats. Still, with Tesla’s status as a mature market leader, Rivian looks to have the scrappy up-and-comer’s advantage of potentially capitalizing on expanding market share within the growing market.

Is RIVN a Buy, Hold, or Sell?

The broad consensus of the 25 analysts covering the stock on Wall Street is neutral. RIVN stock has a consensus rating of Hold based on seven Buy, 14 Hold, and four Sell ratings over the past three months. Its average price target of $13.80 implies approximately 3% downside potential over the next twelve months.

See more RIVN analyst ratings

Analysts following the company remain divided but generally optimistic on Rivian’s prospects. Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating with a $23 price target, citing Rivian’s potential to establish itself as a leading EV platform in Western markets, particularly as some competitors scale back their electric vehicle commitments.

Meanwhile, Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating while lowering its price target from $20 to $18, noting Rivian’s strong financial performance while recognizing the challenges of the current economic environment.

Yet a more cautious view comes from UBS, which raised its target slightly to $13 but maintained a Neutral stance. UBS analysts suggest there’s an “air pocket” for the stock until the company’s AI day in the fall and as it gets closer to the R2 launch in early 2026.

Patient Capital Required to Unlock RIVN’s Potential

Rivian is an intriguing investment opportunity for hardy contrarian investors willing to swim in murkier waters. The company has shown impressive progress on profitability metrics, though it still faces significant headwinds from tariffs, competition, and market dynamics.

Near-term catalysts include continued cost improvements, the official closing of the Volkswagen partnership, and updates on R2 development. However, meaningful stock appreciation may require patience until after the R2 launch in 2026.

I am bullish on Rivian, but I will closely monitor quarterly delivery numbers, gross margin progression, and cash burn rates to gauge the company’s trajectory toward sustainable growth and profitability.