‘History points to a post-midterm rally:’ Oppenheimer suggests 3 stocks to ride the momentum
Stock Analysis & Ideas

‘History points to a post-midterm rally:’ Oppenheimer suggests 3 stocks to ride the momentum

America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the next Congress. All indications point toward a hefty GOP win, and a consequent legislative check on the Democratic Administration.

As for the stock market, if we look back at the past 70 years or so, we find reason for hope no matter the results of the vote. That’s because stocks have rallied after every single mid-term election since the Second World War. It’s no flash-in-the-pan effect either. According to the data, the S&P 500 shows gains for up to a year after a mid-term vote. And with the markets going into election day after 10 months of losses, there’s plenty of room for them to climb back up.

In the words of Oppenheimer’s chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, “Market history suggests to us that regardless of which party is considered the victor in the mid-term elections a rally of some kind is likely in the equity markets near term.”

While Stoltzfus acknowledges that there are multiple issues which will drive markets into next year, the immediate post-election period should see a rally in stocks. Chalk it up to clarity; investors never like uncertain situations, and putting the elections behind us will add a degree of predictability to the next few months.

So let’s assume that we’re in for a short-term rally in stocks. The question then become, which stocks to pick? And that’s where the stock analysts at Oppenheimer can help us. They’ve followed Stoltzfus’ lead, and picked out three equities that are likely to gain as the markets pick up some upward momentum. We’ve used the TipRanks platform to find out what makes them tick. Let’s take a closer look.

DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)

The first Oppenheimer pick is DoorDash, a Silicon Valley company in the world of online food ordering and food delivery services. The company boasts a market share of approximately 56%, making it the undisputed leader in the on-demand delivery niche. The service is accessed through a mobile app, and operates in 27 countries around the world, and from the beginning of 2020 through to 3Q22, the company has generated over $70 billion in sales for affiliated merchants along with more than $25 billion in cumulative earnings for its drivers.

Taking a look at the 3Q numbers, we find that DoorDash has reported rising revenue in each of the last five quarters. The current top line is $1.7 billion, up 33% year-over-year. This was supported by 27% y/y growth in total orders, to 439 million for the quarter, and a 30% gain in marketplace gross order volume, which hit $13.5 billion.

The total order number was the key for the company, as it exceeded Wall Street’s forecast of 433 million. Investors and analysts were also pleased by the revenue number, which came in above the $1.63 billion expectation.

These beats compensated for a deeper-than-expected earnings loss. The net EPS loss of 77 cents was significantly higher than the 60-cent forecast.

Oppenheimer’s 5-star analyst Jason Helfstein looks at the half-full glass and upgrades DoorDash shares from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy). Helfstein also sets a $70 price target to indicate room for ~35% upside in the coming year. (To see Helfstein’s track record, click here)

Backing his stance, Helfstein wrote, “Increased disclosure shows improving US restaurant margins… As such, we forecast ’25 EBITDA of $1.5B, with GOV margins of 1.8%, up from 0.7% in ’22E. We forecast US restaurant contribution margins improving from 5.7% in ’22E to 6.1% in ’25E, with Int’l. & US non-restaurant contribution margins improving from -13.4% in ’22E to -2.4% in ’25E—based on 4–5% incremental margins. 3Q showed continued strength, despite uncertain macro.”

“We believe DoorDash can leverage its early focus on suburban markets to gain traction in Tier-1 markets and continue expanding its current market leader position,” the analyst summed up.

Overall, there are 14 recent analyst reviews on file for DoorDash and they break down to 8 Buys against 6 Holds, for a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The stock is currently trading for $52.27 and has an $84.07 average price target; this implies ~61% potential gain in the next 12 months. (See DASH stock forecast on TipRanks)

Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA)

The leisure industry was hit hard by the COVID lockdowns, but it has been enjoying a renaissance since last year, when economies began opening up and travel restrictions were loosened. The second stock our list, Playa Hotels, is owner, operator, and developer of hotel and resort locations in Mexico and the Caribbean. The company has 25 locations, at prime beachfronts, in Mexico, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic, with a total of 9,352 rooms.

The company reported its 3Q22 numbers earlier this week, and key figure to focus on was the occupancy rate. Playa reported that 73.8% of its rooms were occupied during the third quarter, a huge increase from the 59.3% reported in the year-ago period. The company’s total revenue, of $204.6 million, was up 35% year-over-year, and the adjusted net income came to $5.9 million – which compared favorably to the $13.7 million adjusted net loss in 3Q21. The company has been benefiting from high consumer demand for leisure travel and activities, post-COVID.

Covering PLYA for Oppenheimer, analyst Tyler Batory takes an upbeat view of the company, noting: “We continue to think PLYA is well positioned to take advantage of leisure travel demand and should benefit from increased recognition of the all-inclusive business model by consumers. We also think it’s a positive that the company has not seen an increase in cancellation activity or a slowdown in booking demand outside of hurricane-related activity.”

Following from this optimistic outlook, Batory gives the stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, and his $13 price target suggests it has a robust one-year gain of 121% ahead of it. (To watch Batory’s track record, click here)

This international resort operator has picked up 3 recent reviews on Wall Street – and those reviews are all positive, making for a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating on the stock. Shares in PLYA are trading for $5.88 and the $12.33 average price target implies a 110% gain in the year ahead. (See PLYA stock forecast on TipRanks)

BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)

We’ll now shift to the biotech sector, where BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a pioneer in the treatment of rare genetic diseases. The company is working on the development and commercialization of new therapeutic agents for genetic-based diseases that cause debilitating or life-threatening conditions, and that currently lack any effective treatments.

In addition to an active research pipeline, BioMarin also has a line-up of seven approved drugs currently on the market. These products generated over $464 million in revenues in 3Q22, out of $505 million total at the top line. The product revenues were up 26% year-over-year, and drove a total y/y revenue gain of 24%.

The company’s lead revenue generator is Vimizim, a treatment for the genetic enzyme disorder Morquio A, which causes severe damage to bone, cartilage, and ligament tissues. BioMarin realized $155.5 million in Q3 revenue from Vimizim, up 14% from the year-ago period. The company’s drug Naglazyme showed the largest y/y revenue gain among the product line. This medication, a treatment for the progressive wasting condition Maroteaux-Lamy syndrome, saw revenues grow 40% y/y to reach $99.5 million.

Turning to the company’s pipeline, the leading drug candidate is valoctocogene roxaparvovec, branded as roctavian. This is a new AAV gene therapy treatment for adult sufferers of hemophilia A. The drug has completed clinical trials and received approval for use in the European Union, and the approval process with the FDA, following the Biologics License Application, is progressing. The current PDUFA is March 31, 2023 – although there is a possibility of extending that by 3 months should the FDA require additional information.

This is another stock that got a recent upgrade from Oppenheimer. Analyst Leland Gershell bumped the shares up from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy), while setting a $110 price target that implies an upside of ~35% by the end of next year. (To watch Gershell’s track record, click here)

Gershell believes BMRN is set for outperformance, noting: “Roctavian is in review for potential late March FDA approval for severe hemophilia A, tangible signs of reimbursement progress are being made as it enters European markets, Voxzogo is enjoying a strong global launch in achondroplasia, and BMRN is turning toward consistent profitability and positive cash flow generation—yet share shave only modestly risen above indices in 2022 (-8% vs. NBI -12% YTD). As we enter 2023, we believe the market’s increasing recognition of improving fundamentals and greater comfort around near- (and potentially longer) term revenue opportunities will translate into more pronounced outperformance.”

Overall, it’s clear from the 13 recent analyst reviews that Wall Street likes this stock. The reviews include 11 Buys to 2 Holds for a Strong Buy consensus rating, and the $103.77 average price target suggests a 27% one-year upside from the trading price of $81.33. (See BMRN stock forecast on TipRanks)

To identify stocks that have received the most bullish recent ratings from the Street, visit TipRanks’ Analysts’ Top Stocks tool. The tool also reveals which stocks have dropped over the last three months – enabling you to pinpoint the best stocks trading at compelling levels.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.


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