‘Get Ready for Liftoff,’ Says Baird About Rocket Lab Stock

It’s safe to say Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) has captured investors’ imaginations over the past year. This is a stock that has gained 519% during the period, and it’s not hard to see what all the excitement is about.

Rocket Lab’s Electron small-lift launch vehicle – which carries a list price of about $8.5 million per mission – has completed 72 launches since its 2017 debut, achieving a roughly 94% success rate. This makes it the second most successful commercial space launch vehicle globally over the past decade by launch volume, behind SpaceX’s Falcon 9, which has completed 565 launches since 2015.

Since 2021, the company has been developing its larger Neutron rocket, priced around $50 million per launch, aimed at the medium-lift market currently led by the Falcon 9. The Neutron’s first flight is expected in the second half of 2025 or early next year.

Baird’s Peter Arment, an analyst ranked among the top 1% of Street stock experts, points out that the global space launch market is expected to grow at a mid-teens or higher annual rate through the next decade. From 2020 to 2024, global launches have increased by roughly 22% per year, with year-to-date 2025 launches up about 19% year-over-year. Arment anticipates that global launch activity will continue to expand at least at a mid-teens CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2025 and 2030, supported by “significant demand signals from space customers.”

And Rocket Lab is very well-positioned to make the most of that opportunity. Its reputation as a dependable launch provider is well established, backed by its 94% mission success rate and Street expectations for revenue growth of more than 34% annually through 2030. That growth is expected to accelerate once the larger Neutron rocket begins operations in the “highly lucrative” medium-lift segment, positioning it as a “direct competitor” to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Arment also sees “significant margin expansion potential” through 2030, expecting gross margins to rise from 32.3% in 2025 to 47.5%, led by Launch Services reaching 50% margins by 2030 (up from 29.2%), driven by higher Electron launch cadence and Neutron first-stage reusability, which allows costs to be spread across multiple launches. Meanwhile, Space Systems margins should reach 45% (up from 33.5%) as vertical integration reduces costs and multi-satellite contracts expand across commercial and government programs, including earth observation, missile tracking, and internet connectivity.

Also standing in its stead is a “clean balance sheet” in net cash position. Combined with access to its ATM facility, this provides financial flexibility to pursue bolt-on acquisitions that could further strengthen its vertically integrated spacecraft manufacturing operations within the Space Systems segment.

“We see RKLB becoming a $200+ stock longer-term, assuming solid launch cadence growth is combined with reusable rocket technology development,” Arment summed up.

For now, however, the analyst initiated coverage of RKLB with an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating and a more modest $83 price target. Nevertheless, that target is a Street-high and offers one-year upside of 20%. (To watch Arment’s track record, click here)

8 other analysts join Arment in the bull camp, and with an additional 5 Holds, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, the $56.42 average target implies shares have overshot by 18.5%. With this in mind, keep an eye out for either price target hikes or rating downgrades shortly. (See Rocket Lab stock forecast)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.