It appears that any initial concerns about the demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) new iPhone 15 models can be put to rest.
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As of last Friday (Sept 22nd), lead times for all iPhone 15 models have not only surpassed those of the iPhone 14 cycle but have reached record levels for the Pro/Pro Max.
In the US, lead times have reached 45 days, and the global average stands at 47 days. Notably, the iPhone 15 Pro Max’s lead times are the longest seen for any model launched in the past seven years. Meanwhile, the iPhone 15 Pro’s lead times currently stand at 35 days in the US and 36 days internationally, tying the record for any Pro model ever launched. Additionally, except for the supply-affected iPhone 13/13 mini, the current lead times for the iPhone 15/15 Plus exceed those seen for all other base models.
“In other words,” according to Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, “demand for the iPhone 15 family remains robust relative to supply, with early positive user reviews attributing this demand to the new, lighter form factor, bezel-less display, 5x optical zoom, and action button as the key new features driving early upgrades for the iPhone 15.”
However, it’s not all smooth sailing. When analyzing previous cycles, it’s typical for lead times for the latest iPhone model to increase during the initial week after pre-orders open before stabilizing or decreasing. Therefore, it’s essential to monitor the lead time trends for the iPhone 15 throughout this week and into early October. This monitoring will be particularly crucial as the supply for the iPhone 15 Pro Max improves, and Apple makes adjustments to its production forecasts based on early pre-order demand.
“So while lead times continue to point to a better than expected start to the iPhone 15 cycle,” Woodring sums up, “the next 2 weeks will be critical in determining how strong this cycle really is.”
All told, Woodring rates Apple shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy) with a $215 price target. Should the figure be met, investors will be recording gains of 25% in a year’s time. (See Woodring’s track record, click here)
Most of Woodring’s colleagues are on the same page. The stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 21 Buys vs. 8 Holds. The average target stands at $207.69, implying shares have room for ~21% growth on the one-year horizon. (See Apple stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
