Alibaba (NASDAQ: BABA) stock has declined by 41% over the past year and about 76% from its all-time high level back in 2020. It’s not surprising that investors have sold off Alibaba with a passion. In a high-tension geopolitical environment, international stocks lose their appeal. Combine that with the lack of trust attached to Chinese equities due to corporate governance issues and the Chinese government’s crackdown on big tech, and the perfect storm for Alibaba quickly formed. However, with the stock still trading near lows, investors should revisit Alibaba’s investment case. At this point, the potential reward could overshadow the risks. Nonetheless, due to tons of speculation involved, I am neutral on the stock.
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Were Alibaba’s Q3 Results Actually That Bad?
Alibaba’s bulls were hoping that the company’s Q3 results would end up being a positive catalyst for the stock. Alibaba is known for its ability to deliver rich bottom-line numbers. With the stock trading this low, it makes sense to expect another profitable quarter would be enough to revive interest in the company. So, seeing Alibaba post a net loss of $3.2 billion for the quarter evaporated all sense of hope, but were Alibaba’s Q3 results actually that bad?
At first glance, the $3.2 billion net loss definitely appears frightening. However, some context is needed to shed light on this number. Specifically, the sole reason the company posted a loss is due to the decrease in the market prices of Alibaba’s equity investments in publicly-traded companies. For instance, Alibaba owns a controlling stake in Alibaba Health Information Technology (OTC: ALBHF), whose shares have lost close to 1/4 of their value over the past year. In fact, interest and investment losses amounted to nearly $6.0 billion in Q3, which, again, are the sole contributor to Alibaba’s negative bottom line.
Operationally, however, the company remained robust while its free cash flow soared! Revenues came in at $29.1 billion, up 3% year-over-year, which is quite impressive given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that have affected global commerce as well as China’s zero-Covid policy. Further, Alibaba’s adjusted EBITDA jumped 68% to $3.5 billion, while its EBITDA margin actually improved by 400 basis points to 21%, which is a great result considering this is a highly-inflationary environment that we are experiencing. Finally, with Alibaba reducing its capital expenditures, free cash flow skyrocketed 61% to $5.0 billion, implying a free cash flow margin of 17.1%.
How Cheap is Alibaba Really?
When valuing Alibaba, we need to make sure we don’t take the company’s non-cash losses (or gains) into account, as they can wildly sway its net income, as was the case in its Q3 results. With that in mind, based on Alibaba’s year-to-date performance and Q4 outlook, Wall Street expects the company to post adjusted earnings per share of $7.27 this year, which implies the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of around 10.8x.
One argument is that, obviously, this is a ridiculously low multiple, given the company is growing in a treacherous environment, and net income growth should even accelerate once the markets calm down. The fact that Alibaba has already repurchased approximately $18 billion of its shares under its share repurchase program, which was even boosted by an additional $15 billion recently, should further confirm this. Further, it’s worth mentioning that since Alibaba is trading at such low valuation levels, share repurchases will be massively accretive to earnings per share in the coming years.
On the flip side, you can argue that investors don’t even care about Alibaba’s valuation multiples. As long as scrutiny over Chinese equities persists and geopolitical risks remain, investors might as well just avoid Chinese equities like Alibaba altogether, regardless of how cheap they are. The risk of something going amiss regarding holding Chinese equities actually materializing may just not be worth taking on.
Is BABA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, Alibaba has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on the 15 unanimous Buys assigned in the past three months. At $133.73, the average Alibaba price target implies 76.2% upside potential.
The Takeaway: A Buy for Speculative Investors Only
It seems that nobody would oppose the idea that, from a plainly financial point of view, Alibaba shares are trading at a massive discount – so much so that the stock could double from here, and you’d still have a hard time arguing that it’s expensive. In that sense, assuming the stock’s valuation normalizes at some point, investors could enjoy exceptional returns from a P/E expansion alone.
That said, it’s entirely speculative whether investors are willing to flip the switch in their minds that would result in Alibaba’s sentiment changing, and by the time they do, who knows what the stock’s risk profile could look like at that point? Accordingly, while I would consider Alibaba a Buy numbers-wise, it could only be for speculative investors only.
