Bitcoin was built on the belief that once funds are secured by a private key, no one else can access them. This principle has underpinned its rise as the world’s most trusted digital asset. But what happens if the foundation of that security is suddenly called into question?
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This week, a claim from former Wall Street trader Josh Mandell sent ripples through the crypto community. In a now-deleted post on X, Mandell suggested that quantum computers are already being used to siphon Bitcoin from long-dormant wallets. The allegation sparked alarm, debate and skepticism in equal measure, with experts quick to dismiss the idea as premature.
Mandell Raises Alarm over Dormant Wallets
Mandell alleged that an unnamed “large player” is exploiting quantum technology to quietly drain wallets that have sat inactive for years. These wallets, he said, often belong to holders who are no longer alive or who have lost access to their keys. By targeting such accounts, he argued, coins can be accumulated without triggering obvious disruptions in the open market.
He admitted he had no hard evidence but insisted the idea was plausible. According to Mandell, only detailed blockchain forensics could reveal the suspicious movements. To him, the absence of proof was not proof of safety, only a sign of how discreet the operation could be.
Experts Dismiss Claims as Impossible Today
The pushback from the Bitcoin community was immediate. Harry Beckwith, founder of Hot Pixel Group, stated flatly that there was “literally no chance this is currently happening.” Matthew Pines from the Bitcoin Policy Institute went further, describing the theory as “false” and pointing out that it relies on assumptions rather than data.
Critics argue that the technology simply is not there yet. While progress in quantum computing has been impressive, current devices remain too unstable and too small to crack Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses. Without the scale of hardware required, claims like Mandell’s remain more science fiction than science fact.
Quantum Tech Still Faces Huge Hurdles
Bitcoin security rests on elliptic curve cryptography, specifically the secp256k1 algorithm. For a quantum attack to succeed, a computer would need to use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from public ones. That would require fault-tolerant hardware with hundreds of thousands of logical qubits, far beyond what exists today.
Modern systems are only beginning to approach the level where error correction even starts to work. Google’s 105-qubit Willow chip is an advance, but nowhere near the scale needed to crack Bitcoin. Most researchers believe it will take at least a decade, and likely longer, before a machine powerful enough to break ECDSA could exist.
On-chain Data Shows No Quantum Fingerprints
If wallets were being drained by quantum computers, the blockchain would leave clues. Analysts point out that large movements from dormant wallets have happened, but they show no sign of forced extractions. Instead, most align with ordinary explanations such as owners upgrading to SegWit addresses, inheritance transfers or consolidation.
No unusual patterns of simultaneous drains have been detected, and no confirmed cases of lost funds tied to quantum attacks exist. Blockchain transparency means that large-scale theft would be difficult to hide, and analytics firms that monitor old wallets say they have not seen anything out of the ordinary.
Preparing for a Real but Future Risk
While the present danger appears exaggerated, the concern is not irrelevant. Experts warn that older wallet formats, particularly those where public keys are exposed, could become vulnerable once quantum hardware advances. The industry is already exploring post-quantum cryptographic solutions to get ahead of the risk.
Mandell’s claim may not hold water today, but it highlights the need for preparation. Bitcoin has weathered every challenge so far, yet quantum computing represents one of the few threats that could truly upend its security model. For now, though, it remains a problem for the future, not the present.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $116,846.67.
