Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) AI game has trailed many of its tech peers, and is one of the reasons it no longer sits on the throne as the world’s most valuable company. However, with the tech giant now appearing on the cusp of joining the $4 trillion club, the prospect of renewed market dominance has become very real once more.
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On Monday, AAPL’s share price surged to an all-time high, spurred on by indications of strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, which appears to be outperforming the iPhone 16 in both the U.S. and China.
Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah points out that Apple is now entering the early stages of a “long-awaited adoption cycle,” suggesting continued iPhone shipment growth through 2027, which happens to be the year of Apple’s 20th anniversary iPhone. The growth is expected to be driven by a mix of upgrade activity and renewed demand boosted by upcoming design changes. In fact, Baruah thinks there is “STILL more iPhone unit (and ASP) upside to Street than is understood… THRU 2027.”
While Wall Street is already pricing in some level of outperformance from the iPhone 17 lineup, Baruah believes there is still “material upside” to consensus expectations through 2027. Specifically, the analyst expects iPhone shipments to reach about 238 million units in 2025 – just shy of the 240 million units seen in 2021 – followed by new records of around 250 million in 2026 and more than 260 million in 2027.
Design could be a major factor behind this momentum. Apple is expected to introduce at least two new design models over the next two years, with the already released iPhone 17 Air followed by the iPhone 18 Foldable. In 2027, the company plans to launch the iPhone 20 (its anniversary model, skipping the iPhone 19 name), which is expected to be Apple’s first purpose-built “AI Phone.”
“If this ends up being the case, then this would ultimately qualify as the third consecutive year of design innovation,” said Baruah.
Meanwhile, the iPhone 17 Air, which replaces the iPhone 16 Plus, is expected to see roughly 27 million units sold in its first year – compared with just 8 million units for the 16 Plus in its first 12 months, noted the analyst.
The iPhone 18 Ultra (Foldable), anticipated to be released in September 2026, is expected to have between 10 million and 12 million units produced during its launch period, which Baruah pointed out is roughly equivalent to the size of the current market.
“We’re looking at AAPL being a ‘market creator,’ much (like) they did with the iPad,” Baruah added.
The upshot of all that is an upgrade from Hold (i.e., Neutral) to Buy, with Baruah also raising his price target from $226 to a new Street-high of $315, suggesting the stock will gain another 20% in the months ahead. (To watch Baruah’s track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, the stock claims an additional 20 Buys, 12 Holds and 3 Sells, coasting to a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, its $260.40 average target implies the shares will stay rangebound for the time being. (See Apple stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.