AT&T (T) stock has fallen 21.6% over the past year, slipping 7.0% in the last month but edging up 2.6% over the past week. Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish overall, forecasting upside from a 12‑month average price target of $30.15 versus the last closing price of $21.12.
Yet one influential voice has turned cautious. Steven Cahall of Wells Fargo initiated coverage on July 8, 2026 with a Sell rating and an $18 price target, implying downside from current levels. His stance contrasts with the broader Moderate Buy consensus, highlighting a growing divide over how AT&T will navigate the next wave of telecom disruption.
Cahall’s thesis leans heavily on AT&T’s aggressive push into fiber. He actually sees long‑term opportunity in convergence, estimating fiber revenue at 8% of total sales in 2026 rising to 14% by 2032, with around 12 million fiber‑converged postpaid accounts by then, more than double today. However, he worries that cable rivals will pressure pricing, squeezing average revenue per user even as fiber penetration grows.
Outside fiber markets, Cahall flags bigger risks. He estimates about two‑thirds of AT&T’s postpaid wireless accounts are currently non‑converged, and even by 2028 more than half could still be exposed to higher churn due to weaker competitive footholds. With satellite offerings pressuring fixed wireless access across the industry, he sees AT&T as the most at risk for losing net adds and postpaid account share despite its fiber strategy.
A key question is whether AT&T will strike a mobile virtual network operator deal with Starlink, as some peers might. Cahall assigns only a 20% probability to such a partnership, lower than his estimates for T‑Mobile and Verizon, arguing management is less likely to embrace disruptive technologies. Ranked 1,179 out of 12,322 analysts on TipRanks, he carries a 55.9% success rate and a 7.9% average return per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.