(AAPL) stock has risen 36.2% over the past 12 months, though it slipped 0.3% in the last week and 2.8% over the past month. Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish, with a ModerateBuy consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $332.33, implying modest upside from the last end‑of‑day price of $308.26.
Against this broadly positive backdrop, one prominent voice has turned cautious. Edison Lee of Jefferies downgraded Apple to Sell on August 10, 2026, setting a price target of $263.66 that points to notable downside from current levels.
Lee’s concerns center on Apple’s long‑term iPhone roadmap and its ability to push customers toward higher‑priced devices. His supply‑chain checks suggest Apple has canceled a planned “all‑glass” 20th‑anniversary iPhone once expected for September 2027 due to poor production yields.
That all‑glass iPhone was envisioned as a premium model with an estimated average selling price of about $2,060, and its design was expected to spread to future Pro and Pro Max versions. According to Lee, canceling this family of devices cuts his forecast for iPhone ASP growth between FY26 and FY31 from 9.0% to 6.8%, weakening a key margin driver.
With the all‑glass concept shelved, Lee now sees the future foldable iPhone as the only major lever for higher prices and margins. Yet his estimates show that soaring memory costs would push the iPhone 18 Fold’s starting price to roughly $2,199 for 256GB, rising to $3,099 for 2TB, making it a niche product despite a projected 14 million units sold.
Lee also flags limits in Apple’s planned memory upgrades, which he sees as a sign that Apple Intelligence may not justify substantially higher hardware costs. Supply‑chain data suggests the iPhone 19 Pro Max could move from 12GB to 16GB of DRAM, but only on that top model, and Apple might abandon the upgrade if memory prices rise more than expected.
Nearer term, Apple’s recent tweaks to iPhone trade‑in values add another wrinkle. The company raised trade‑in values for iPhone 15 and 16 in markets like the U.S. and Europe, which could pull forward demand into the iPhone 17 lineup, but it lowered trade‑in prices for iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max in China by 5% and 2%, respectively.
Lee cautions that these monthly negotiated trade‑in deals may not signal imminent price hikes on new models, contrary to some market speculation. While richer U.S. trade‑in offers could help iPhone 17 demand, he believes they may squeeze sales of the subsequent iPhone 18, which is expected to see mid‑teen percentage price increases without major feature upgrades.
For investors, Apple remains a stock with strong long‑term performance and a generally positive Street view, but Lee’s Sell rating underscores rising execution risks in its premium iPhone strategy. His track record is solid: this 4‑star analyst ranks 919 out of 12,411 on TipRanks, with a 52.63% success rate and an average return of 24.10% per rating.
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