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Adobe Stock Forecast: Analysts Split On AI Monetization

Adobe Stock Forecast: Analysts Split On AI Monetization

(ADBE) stock has fallen 6.6% over the past week, dropped 3.8% in the last month, and is down a steep 29.0% over the past year, reflecting growing investor caution. Wall Street’s analysts are broadly neutral, with a consensus Hold rating and a 12‑month price target of $267.52, implying modest upside from the latest close at $248.83.

The mixed sentiment is clear in recent expert calls, as some see stabilizing growth while others worry about structural challenges. Analyst Derrick Wood reiterates a Hold rating with a $245 target, slightly below the current share price, suggesting limited near‑term upside while investors wait for clearer signals on growth and profitability.

Wood points to Adobe’s 3Q setup as “fairly weak,” with partner surveys and credit card data showing softer trends and more competition. He notes that Adobe is leaning more on freemium user acquisition and slowing individual price hikes, which may support adoption but also caps revenue growth and keeps AI monetization signals mixed across products.

At the same time, Tal Liani takes a more cautious stance, reiterating a Sell rating with a $220 target, implying downside from current levels. Liani argues that while Adobe is seeing strong usage of AI tools like Firefly and Express, the company still struggles to convert this momentum into meaningful revenue growth and faces margin pressure from heavy AI and cloud investments.

TipRanks data shows Wood ranked 10644 of 12443 analysts, with a 46.88% success rate and average return of -1.2% per rating, while Liani ranks 858 with a 56.45% success rate and 9.5% average return, underscoring the weight behind the bearish call. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.

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