Tesla (TSLA) stock is trending higher Thursday ahead of its invite-only Cybercab event in Austin. Investors want to see whether Tesla can move its robotaxi plans toward commercial service. Morgan Stanley said the stock could react positively if Tesla deploys 25–50 Cybercabs across Texas in the days or weeks after the event.
The Cybercab is a two-seat electric vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals. Tesla plans to use it as the main vehicle for its driverless ride-hailing network. The company has released few details about tonight’s event, which is scheduled to begin at 5:45 p.m. ET.
What Would Make the Cybercab Event a Win for Tesla?
A commercial launch would give Tesla’s robotaxi plans a bigger boost than another product demonstration. Morgan Stanley’s bull case calls for unsupervised Cybercabs carrying paid retail passengers across Austin, Houston and Dallas.
Recent Texas DMV data shows Tesla has registered about 40 additional Cybercabs for commercial operation. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said the registrations suggest Tesla is preparing for a larger rollout.
The bank does not see a specific vehicle count as necessary. Still, Percoco said the market needs to see more than a handful, or roughly 5–10 Cybercabs, on the road. He believes 25–50 vehicles across Texas would likely push the stock higher.
Tesla’s broader unsupervised robotaxi fleet is also growing. A third-party tracker showed the fleet rising by about 175% from 57 vehicles on June 30 to 156 on Aug. 31. Morgan Stanley said continued growth in the fleet will be important for the stock through year-end.
What Could Disappoint Tesla Investors?
The main risk is that the event amounts to a demonstration rather than a commercial rollout. Morgan Stanley’s bear case calls for retail demonstrations with limited to no deployed fleet for commercial use.
Percoco said that outcome would do little to rebuild excitement around Tesla’s robotaxi business, and the stock could fade after the event.
Tesla also faces competition from Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo, Zoox and the Uber-Lucid-Nuro partnership. Its camera-based approach is another point to watch. Waymo uses cameras, lidar and radar, while Tesla relies mainly on cameras and onboard computing.
Tesla’s recent approval for robotaxi operations in Las Vegas could also help its rollout. Nevada approved up to 5,000 fully autonomous vehicles over the next 12 months, compared with 1,000 vehicles for Waymo.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 11 Buys, 14 Holds, and three Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. The average TSLA price target of $385.05 per share implies 7.85% upside potential.
