The Minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting confirmed the central bank’s “higher for longer” message, but the recent batch of mostly soft economic data, published after the meeting, adds some question marks regarding the length of the higher-rates period. Investors now expect that the Federal Reserve will maintain its more or less hawkish rhetoric, which they interpret as intended to keep the market sentiment at bay to prevent excessive easing of the financial conditions.
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With no market-moving earnings releases scheduled for this week, investors will zoom in on the many important economic reports scheduled to be published in the next few days. The main emphasis will be on the PCE data, which will help investors grasp the ongoing impact of the Fed’s rate increases.
Here are three economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of all upcoming economic events, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.
» Q3 2023 GDP Growth Annualized (second estimate) – Wednesday, 11/29 – This report, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, will provide an update to the initial estimate of the U.S. economy’s health in the previous quarter, incorporating fresh data received after the first estimate’s release. The third quarter’s economic growth is expected to come in at an even stronger pace than was previously estimated, with analysts penciling in a 5% annualized growth rate (versus the initial estimate of 4.9%).
» October’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) – Thursday, 11/30 – This report, published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, reflects the average amount of money consumers spend monthly, excluding seasonally volatile products such as food and energy. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index as their primary gauge of inflation. Analysts expect the Core PCE to mimic the disinflation trend seen in the CPI report, slowing further from September.
» October’s ISM Manufacturing PMI – Friday, 12/01 – Released by the Conference Board, this report shows business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic conditions. PMIs are considered to be some of the most reliable leading indicators for assessing the state of the U.S. economy, helping analysts and economists to correctly anticipate changing economic trends. In contrast to other economic sectors, manufacturing has been declining for 11 months; in October, it’s expected to have notched down deeper into the contraction territory.
