Vericel (VCEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 440.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 939.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 14.80%
• EPS Growth: 530.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 50,342,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 420,132
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 440,150
• PEG Ratio: -8.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 42.22
• 1Y Price Target: $58.50
• Price Target Upside: 57.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(7.76%Upside)

Vericel's overall score is driven by solid financial performance and a positive earnings call. However, technical analysis and valuation concerns weigh down the score. The supportive shareholder sentiment provides a modest boost.

Positive Factors

Financial Guidance

VCEL maintained FY25 revenue guidance while raising profitability guidance.

Market Expansion

Arthro opens the use of MACI by arthroscopic-only surgeons, potentially adding around 2,000 additional surgeons to its target base.

Product Innovation

Doctors are supportive of the Arthro launch, observing positive early outcomes for patients and quicker procedure times.

Negative Factors

Price Target Adjustment

The price target has been lowered to $61 from $67 as comparative multiples for the high-growth comp group have retracted.

Revenue and Earnings

The company reported total revenues of $52.6M for the quarter, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $53.8M, and a net loss of $0.23 per share, compared to the consensus estimated net loss of $0.13 per share.

Revenue Performance

VCEL reported lower-than-expected Epicel sales, which contributed to a decline in overall sales performance.

Vericel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Vericel Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cell therapy products, MACI and Epicel. The company markets MACI for orthopedic applications, particularly targeting patients with knee cartilage damage. Revenue from MACI is driven by the number of procedures performed and the adoption of the therapy by orthopedic surgeons. Epicel is marketed for the treatment of severe burn victims, with revenue dependent on the number of patients treated and the extent of their injuries. Vericel also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with hospitals and healthcare providers to expand the reach and adoption of its products, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory approvals, healthcare reimbursement policies, and the overall demand for regenerative medicine solutions.

Vericel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vericel has demonstrated consistent revenue growth and strong gross margins. The balance sheet is solid with manageable debt levels. However, profitability metrics like net profit margin and ROE indicate room for improvement.

Income Statement

Vericel shows a consistent revenue growth over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 0.55% from the previous year. The gross profit margin is robust at 72.53%, indicating strong cost control relative to revenue. However, net profit margin dropped to 1.25% in the TTM period due to a decrease in EBIT. The EBITDA margin is healthy at 4.42%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

Vericel maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 69.60%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 indicates moderate leverage, which is manageable. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 1.01% in the TTM period, though still relatively low, suggesting room for improving profitability.

Cash Flow

The company has demonstrated a strong improvement in free cash flow, with a significant turn from negative in 2024 to positive $43.58 million in the TTM period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 19.33, showing efficient cash generation capability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 14.63, indicating a need for further improvement in cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	237.22M	197.52M	164.37M	156.18M	124.18M
Gross Profit	172.11M	135.58M	109.79M	106.03M	84.23M
EBITDA	16.63M	2.86M	-11.64M	-4.61M	9.88M
Net Income	10.36M	-3.18M	-16.71M	-7.47M	2.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	432.72M	353.66M	273.00M	243.71M	205.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	116.21M	109.56M	119.54M	103.40M	75.81M
Total Debt	98.85M	88.04M	47.57M	50.10M	53.18M
Total Liabilities	140.75M	127.70M	80.73M	73.24M	71.35M
Stockholders Equity	291.97M	225.95M	192.27M	170.46M	134.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.81M	7.80M	10.09M	21.13M	14.95M
Operating Cash Flow	58.16M	35.31M	17.69M	29.04M	17.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-79.03M	-3.13M	-36.21M	-3.50M	-17.16M
Financing Cash Flow	19.05M	3.62M	1.04M	9.17M	6.44M

Vericel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.97, below the 50-day MA of 41.65, and below the 200-day MA of 48.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCEL.

Vericel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	80 Outperform	$2.00B	13.42	24.71%	―	20.62%	14.08%
VCYT	70 Outperform	$1.98B	60.00	2.86%	―	23.42%	―
VCEL	68 Neutral	$1.87B	939.75	1.13%	―	14.80%	530.21%
LGND	60 Neutral	$2.40B	48.01	-16.56%	―	53.40%	-230.86%
ARQT	54 Neutral	$1.90B	―	-70.58%	―	100.03%	64.22%
Sector *	52 Neutral	kr5.65B	11.48	-62.48%	1.93%	25.53%	21.64%
TARS	49 Neutral	$1.70B	―	-33.98%	―	449.03%	42.86%

Vericel Corporate Events

Vericel Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At its recent Annual Meeting, Vericel‘s shareholders voted on several key proposals, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm, and adoption of the company’s amended plans. These decisions reflect shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening Vericel’s position in its industry.