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Thermal Energy International (TMG) AI Stock Analysis

TSE:TMG

Thermal Energy International

(TSXV:TMG)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:CAD 0.15▼(-1.29% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/29/26

The score is supported by stronger profitability and leverage, positive earnings-call developments, and order growth, but constrained by revenue volatility, weakening cash-flow conversion, and bearish technical trends.

Positive Factors
TTM Growth and EBITDA ImprovementStrong multi-year revenue expansion combined with a substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA indicates improving scale and operating leverage. If sustained, this progress can strengthen internal funding capacity, support product investment, and improve the company’s ability to compete for larger efficiency projects.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin VolatilityRecent revenue softness and a history of fluctuating margins make earnings less predictable than the growth trajectory alone suggests. Project mix, timing, and execution can materially affect profitability, which may constrain consistent cash generation and make results uneven across coming reporting periods.

Thermal Energy International (TMG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%TSE:TMG+24.00%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
CAD 26.50M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
95.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
33.0
Beta (1Y)
0.28
Revenue Growth
16.89%
EPS Growth
―
Country
Canada
Employees
78
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Industrial - Pollution & Treatment Controls

Thermal Energy International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Thermal Energy International Inc. engages in the development, engineering, and supply of pollution control, heat recovery systems, and condensate return solutions in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers GEM steam traps; FLUA...

How the Company Makes Money

The company makes money primarily by selling and delivering energy-efficiency projects and associated services to industrial and institutional facilities. Key revenue streams typically include: 1) Equipment and project revenue: Revenue from the sale...

Thermal Energy International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026(Q1-2027)|% Change Since:0.00%|Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2018
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

Management acknowledged that first-quarter results were below expectations because of project timing, delayed customer-site readiness, GEM shipment timing, foreign exchange effects, and higher operating expenses. However, the call emphasized strong trailing-twelve-month growth, a 76% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, sustained profitability and cash generation, a strong balance sheet, expanding backlog, nearly CAD 13 million of fiscal 2027 orders, new customer wins, and progress on scalable offerings and sales channels. The positive operational and strategic developments significantly outweighed the primarily timing-related quarterly setbacks.

Positive Updates

Strong Trailing-Twelve-Month Performance
For the trailing 12 months ended August 31, revenue, gross profit, Adjusted EBITDA, and net income were all up significantly year-over-year. Trailing-twelve-month revenue was approximately CAD 33 million, up 17% year-over-year and 42% over the last three years.

Negative Updates

First-Quarter Revenue Decline
First-quarter revenue was CAD 6.2 million, down 9% year-over-year and below management's expectations. The decrease was primarily attributed to project timing and revenue recognition.

Company Guidance

Management expects the two delayed heat recovery projects to “accelerate in the near term” once site-related issues are resolved; the fiscal year will focus on establishing the independent representative network, with “some contribution” expected “next year.” HeatSponge in Europe is expected to be “a material contributor? No,” with “an order or two” and “a few orders this year,” but it “will not be material to the bottom line or to the top line.” European manufacturing is expected to begin “right away,” initially “entirely in the U.S.,” then “partially manufacture in the U.S.,” and finally “total contract manufacturing,” depending on orders. Management said it has no further plans for the “over CAD 1 million annualized” growth investments, has “no imminent plans right now for any acquisitions,” and may pursue acquisitions or normal course issuer bids “when we feel we have lots of cash available for the foreseeable future.”

Thermal Energy International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance-sheet strength and improved profitability are offset by sharp revenue volatility, modest margins, and weaker free-cash-flow generation.

Income Statement

58Neutral

Balance Sheet

75Positive

Cash Flow

55Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMAug 2026Aug 2025Aug 2024Aug 2022Aug 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue33.55M33.55M29.78M25.88M21.09M15.91M
Gross Profit13.55M13.55M12.34M12.45M9.57M6.73M
EBITDA2.20M1.88M1.17M2.14M1.76M-716.46K
Net Income1.25M1.25M73.17K929.50K717.96K-1.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.81M13.81M11.95M16.79M13.51M9.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.27M3.27M2.80M6.97M2.81M2.46M
Total Debt1.81M1.81M1.59M3.89M4.73M5.31M
Total Liabilities8.63M8.63M8.38M13.37M11.59M8.55M
Stockholders Equity5.15M5.15M3.57M3.46M1.97M1.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.73M1.73M-1.75M5.02M1.33M-1.99M
Operating Cash Flow2.20M2.20M-1.67M5.40M1.41M-1.64M
Investing Cash Flow-470.84K-470.84K-77.73K-376.89K-77.70K-351.93K
Financing Cash Flow-1.24M-1.24M-2.41M-1.06M-1.04M357.56K

Thermal Energy International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price0.15

Price Trends

50DMA0.15Positive
100DMA0.16Positive
200DMA0.16Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Negative
RSI57.52Neutral
STOCH50.00Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.15, above the 50-day MA of 0.15, and below the 200-day MA of 0.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TMG.

Thermal Energy International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

TSE:TMG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
TSE:TMGTSE:TMG61NeutralCAD 26.50M32.9816.53%―16.89%―
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
TSE:QSTTSE:QST48NeutralCAD 7.08M-2.31-16.34%―-74.07%-251.51%
TSE:GRNTSE:GRN44NeutralCAD 27.17M-6.25-18.95%―5.01%-3122.22%
TSE:WATRTSE:WATR43NeutralCAD 2.47M-12.505.26%―159.71%97.18%
TSE:SHRCTSE:SHRC41NeutralCAD 14.04M-3.92109.61%―-22.75%5.86%
TSE:ACTTSE:ACT39UnderperformCAD 508.04M-23.86-51.78%―-44.40%-8.31%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%TSE:TMGTSE:WATRTSE:SHRCTSE:QSTTSE:GRNTSE:ACTDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
TSE:TMG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TSE:TMGThermal Energy International0.150.0219.23%
TSE:WATRCurrent Water Technologies Inc0.01-0.01-50.00%
TSE:SHRCSharc International Systems Inc.0.090.016.25%
TSE:QSTQuestor Technology0.26-0.21-45.16%
TSE:GRNGreenlane Renewables0.17-0.09-34.62%
TSE:ACTAduro Clean Technologies Inc.14.20-5.49-27.88%

Thermal Energy International Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Thermal Energy Wins $2 Million Heat Recovery Deal with Global Nutrition Client

Positive
Oct 28, 2026

Thermal Energy International has secured a $2 million turnkey heat recovery project with a leading global nutrition company, marking the 12th turnkey engagement with this client and the sixth in the past year. The project will capture waste heat from...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Thermal Energy International Delivers Strong Backlog Despite Soft First Quarter

Neutral
Oct 27, 2026

Thermal Energy International reported weaker first-quarter results for the period ended August 31, 2026, with revenue down 9.2% to $6.2 million, a negative adjusted EBITDA of $80,000, and a net loss of $272,000, largely due to delays in delivering se...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Thermal Energy Wins $3.2 Million Heat Recovery Deal with European Dairy Co-op

Positive
Oct 26, 2026

Thermal Energy International has secured a $3.2 million turnkey heat recovery project with a European agricultural and dairy co-operative, marking a significant win in one of its key target sectors. The system will recover waste heat from two boiler...

Business Operations and Strategy

Thermal Energy International Targets Microcap Investors with Planet MicroCap Toronto Appearance

Positive
Oct 20, 2026

Thermal Energy International, a specialist in high-return energy efficiency and carbon reduction projects for large industrial clients, is deepening its outreach to the microcap investment community. The company leverages its proprietary technologies...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Thermal Energy International Sets Date for Fiscal Q1 2027 Results and Investor Call

Positive
Oct 19, 2026

Thermal Energy International will release its fiscal 2027 first quarter financial results before the market opens on October 27, 2026, and follow with an earnings conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET that morning. The company will make its fin...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Thermal Energy Lands $2.1 Million Heat Recovery Deals With Global Nutrition Company

Positive
Aug 24, 2026

Thermal Energy International has secured three repeat heat recovery orders totalling about $2.1 million from a global nutrition company, covering two turnkey projects in the United States and a major equipment package for Indonesia, its first such or...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026