Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Novavax expects adjusted total revenues of between $235 million and $275 million, with a midpoint of $255 million, including a $5 million increase to adjusted supply sales, a $10 million increase to other partner-related revenues, and a $10 million reduction to partner R&D reimbursements; the majority of remaining revenue is expected in the fourth quarter. Full-year 2026 combined GAAP R&D and SG&A expense guidance is $390 million at midpoint, while non-GAAP and net of partner reimbursements is expected to be $325 million at midpoint. Looking forward to 2028, Novavax expects to reduce non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses by over $200 million, reflecting a 50% decrease when compared to 2025, achieve combined non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense of $150 million-$200 million, reach non-GAAP P&L profitability as early as 2028, and operate with less than half the head count as compared to the first quarter of 2026; it is also exploring an over 50% reduction to its operating footprint, which could result in a non-cash fixed asset write-off of up to $35 million in 2027, in addition to existing expense guidance. The company expects to pay off pandemic-era APA liabilities by the first quarter of 2029 and maintain at least two years' cash runway, with the $75 million Sanofi manufacturing tech transfer milestone expected by mid-2027 extending current cash runway from 2028 into 2029.