HelloFresh SE (HFGN) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reconfirmed the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook while saying constant‑currency revenue is now trending toward the bottom of the full‑year range and that the back‑to‑school campaign will be the next meaningful read on conversion and marketing efficiency. Q2 group revenue was EUR 1.5bn (‑7.8% CC), group Q2 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 120.6m (7.8% margin), and H1 free cash flow was positive EUR 49.4m; at the midpoint of guidance management still expects full‑year free cash flow to be positive with H2 materially stronger than H2 2025. Key unit metrics: group AOV was EUR 71 (+6.5% CC), meal‑kit AOV was EUR 64.5 (+7.1% CC) with meal‑kit H1 AOV up 5.7% and order rate +4.1% in H1; meal‑kit Q2 adj. EBITDA was EUR 167m (15.1%) and H1 meal‑kit adj. EBITDA EUR 271m (11.7%), while ready‑to‑eat Q2 adj. EBITDA was EUR 13.1m (3%) and H1 RTE adj. EBITDA improved to ‑EUR 13.6m (from ‑EUR 26.4m). Operational and cost context: ~85% of the EUR 300m efficiency program is complete, group contribution margin was 25.2% (‑2.1pp y/y), procurement/cooking costs rose ~2.4pp, marketing spend declined 16.3% YoY to 14.9% of revenue (meal kit marketing 11.6% of revenue; RTE 19.2%), H1 CapEx was EUR 76.7m, and the company issued a EUR 350m bond (5.5% coupon, 2031) to extend maturities; management said at least ~EUR 24m of adjusted EBITDA improvement is needed in H2 to hit the midpoint, driven by further efficiency, contribution‑margin expansion and calibrated marketing.