Befesa S.A. (BFSAN) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For fiscal year 2026, Befesa specified adjusted EBITDA guidance between EUR 260 million and EUR 270 million, excluding any contribution from IRA 45X, and including the approximately EUR 26 million 45X contribution, the accounting guidance range would be EUR 286 million-EUR 296 million; the 45X benefit is expected to contribute $25 million-$30 million per year for nine years, stepping down from 2031 to 2033, with the first cash in the first half of 2027. CapEx is expected to be around EUR 70 million, leverage around 1.8x by year-end including 45X, and EPS above EUR 2.9. Steel dust volume is expected to be similar or a slightly higher total volume than last year, with U.S. volumes up 60,000 tons-70,000 tons, 2027 U.S. growth around 50,000 tons and potentially another 60,000 tons, 70,000 tons in 2028 to be confirmed; Q4 volume is expected to be a little higher than Q4 of 2025, around 320,000 tons. Salt slags volumes are expected to maintain broadly stable volumes, the secondary aluminum metal margin is expected to continue improving in the last quarter, Q4 coke prices are expected to be slightly higher, electricity and natural gas prices higher, and general inflation is expected to continue to be a headwind. The Recytech expansion is expected to require EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million in two years, or EUR 30 million-EUR 35 million per year, while Bernburg is expected to contribute in the range of EUR 6 million in 2027; the EUR 300 million medium-term level becomes EUR 330 million with the grant.