Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961N) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Trip.com guided Q2 net revenue growth of approximately 3%–8% year‑over‑year, a moderation from Q1’s 17% YoY increase when Group net revenue was RMB 16.2 billion (core OTA gross bookings ~RMB 300 billion); management said the outlook reflects higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions driving up airfares and tightening airline capacity—especially on long‑haul routes—and the near‑term impact of operational/compliance upgrades (partially reflected in the Q2 range). For context, Q1 highlights cited on the call include inbound gross bookings +90% YoY (≈7 million inbound travelers in Q1 vs ~20 million in FY2025 and a five‑year target of 200 million), international OTA gross bookings +65% YoY, accommodation revenue RMB 6.5bn (+17% YoY), transportation ticketing revenue RMB 6.1bn (+12%), package tour revenue RMB 1.1bn (+19%), corporate travel RMB 690m (+20%), adjusted EBITDA RMB 4.8bn (vs RMB 4.2bn a year ago), diluted EPS RMB 3.67 ($0.53) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS RMB 5.73 ($0.83), cash and short‑term liquidity RMB 104.0bn ($15.1bn), plus product/supply metrics (≈450k hotels, 180k attraction products; >110k suppliers engaged; ~14k first‑time inbound suppliers); management emphasized limited visibility into H2 and prudent, ROI‑driven investment while balancing near‑term discipline.