WH Group (288N) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management said the updated fourth quarter U.S. fresh pork view reflects further deterioration without assuming a seasonal improvement; the industry processing spread narrowed by about 28% sequentially and is now down 35% versus the prior year, while the packaged meats business is expected to deliver volume, profit and margin expansion. In China, fourth quarter hog prices are expected to remain at a low level in November and October, may recover somewhat in December, but the fourth quarter average hog price is still possible to be lower than the third quarter; next year, hog prices are expected to have a moderate recovery of roughly RMB 1 per kilogram, with the price lower in the first half and relatively higher in the second half. China packaged meats fourth quarter profit per ton is expected to be relatively lower compared to last year, volume will increase, and overall profit will be stable compared to last year; next year, the company is confident about a very strong growth in volumes, with positive growth in the traditional channel probable, emerging channels at 25% of sales for the first 3 quarters and 26% for the full year. Shuanghui expects fourth quarter volume to achieve stable growth, profits to achieve positive growth and revenue to decline driven by lower market price; fourth quarter profit per ton will have a slight decrease compared to last year and will be higher compared to the third quarter, while full-year profit per ton will be lower than last year but still at a very high level. Shuanghui will maintain moderate and high payout ratios, although it is not able to comment on the exact payout ratio at this point, and WH Group’s dividend policy remains no less than 50% of net profit. In Europe, pork prices next year are expected to be moderately higher than this year, especially in probably the second to third quarter, and the overall business is expected to have better results than this year.