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MSP Recovery (MSPR) AI Stock Analysis

MSPR

MSP Recovery

(Other OTC:MSPR)

Select Model
Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:$0.05â–²(370.00% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by severe financial weakness (declining revenue, large losses, negative cash flows, and negative equity). Technicals also remain bearish with price below key moving averages and a negative MACD. Corporate events add additional near-term risk due to delisting and constrained, discretionary liquidity support, while valuation metrics provided offer limited positive support.

Positive Factors
Contingency fee business modelMSPR's contingency fee model aligns revenue with client recoveries, reducing reliance on fixed billing and shifting collection risk to performance. Over 2-6 months this model supports cash conversion when recoveries occur and incentivizes client retention and scalable growth tied to recovery effectiveness.
Negative Factors
Severe financial deteriorationSteep revenue decline, deeply negative margins and recurring negative cash flow indicate structural operating weakness and poor cash generation. Over a multi-month horizon this erodes liquidity, restricts reinvestment and increases likelihood the firm must secure dilutive or costly financing to sustain operations.

MSP Recovery (MSPR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-100%-75%-50%-25%0%25%MSPR-98.48%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26
Market Cap
$1,377
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
0.0
Beta (1Y)
-63.50
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
78
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Information Services

MSP Recovery Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MSP Recovery, Inc. specializes in healthcare claims recovery and data analytics, serving clients throughout the United States and Puerto Rico. The company provides extensive services, enabling itself, associated parties, and third-party organizations...

How the Company Makes Money

MSP Recovery generates revenue through a contingency fee model, whereby it earns a percentage of the recovered funds on behalf of its clients. This means that the company only makes money when it successfully recovers payments, aligning its financial...

MSP Recovery Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2024(Q1-2024)|% Change Since:-99.99%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 30, 2023
Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The earnings call highlighted LifeWallet's successful settlements and increased claims recovery income, demonstrating progress in its core business model. However, the company also reported a significant operating loss, primarily due to noncash items. Overall, while there are substantial achievements, the financial results reflect ongoing challenges.

Positive Updates

Successful Settlements with Insurers
LifeWallet achieved two comprehensive settlements with multiple property and casualty insurers, resolving claims and establishing a process for future claims. The settlements include provisions for data sharing and a 5-year agreement for binding mediation of Medicare claim liens.

Negative Updates

Significant Operating Loss
LifeWallet reported an operating loss of $130 million for Q1 2024, with 93% attributed to noncash items such as claims amortization expense.

Company Guidance

During the LifeWallet First Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting significant achievements and financial metrics. LifeWallet reached two comprehensive settlements with property and casualty insurers, which included agreements to provide 10 years of historical data and to collaboratively resolve future Medicare claims. These settlements resulted in claims recovery income of $6 million for Q1 2024, an increase from the $3.5 million reported in Q1 2023. The company reported a total operating loss of $130 million, primarily driven by non-cash items, with an adjusted operating loss of $8.7 million after excluding claims amortization expenses. LifeWallet's total assets were valued at $3 billion, with liabilities amounting to $1.8 billion. The company has extended various obligations to 2025 and secured additional liquidity through a working capital credit facility and a Yorkville standby equity purchase agreement, ensuring its ability to meet cash obligations over the next year.

MSP Recovery Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very weak fundamentals: revenue is declining (-26.12% TTM), profitability is deeply negative (net margin -73.28% TTM; EBIT/EBITDA negative), liquidity is strained with negative operating and free cash flow, and the balance sheet shows severe stress with negative stockholders’ equity (-$563.84M TTM), indicating elevated solvency risk.

Income Statement

25Negative

Balance Sheet

30Negative

Cash Flow

20Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.81M18.25M7.71M23.42M14.63M13.89M
Gross Profit2.58M8.64M5.56M21.37M14.09M13.71M
EBITDA-617.81M-652.46M-545.71M-280.47M-5.52M-3.15M
Net Income-719.22M-360.50M-56.35M-7.42M-33.09M-24.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.55B1.92B3.16B3.42B104.01M17.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.82M12.33M11.63M3.66M1.66M11.88M
Total Debt761.48M794.66M679.22M324.25M213.61M48.09M
Total Liabilities2.40B2.05B1.74B1.23B255.41M133.69M
Stockholders Equity-563.84M100.58M272.39M109.69M-155.76M-120.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-10.59M-16.65M-41.77M-83.62M1.62M-344.00K
Operating Cash Flow-10.22M-16.12M-40.02M-80.64M2.25M-14.00K
Investing Cash Flow-527.00K-2.73M7.56M-5.68M-2.01M986.00K
Financing Cash Flow14.93M19.54M29.02M99.73M-10.46M9.61M

MSP Recovery Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.01

Price Trends

50DMA0.02Negative
100DMA0.03Negative
200DMA0.20Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.00Positive
RSI37.64Neutral
STOCH-5.26Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSPR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, below the 50-day MA of 0.02, and below the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -5.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSPR.

MSP Recovery Risk Analysis

MSP Recovery disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MSP Recovery reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

MSP Recovery Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

MSPR against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
WAYWAY73Outperform$5.37B38.893.59%―19.23%44.44%
CCLDCCLD65Neutral$74.79M25.2116.56%―15.07%―
PHRPHR63Neutral$772.16M72.243.01%―12.93%―
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
HCATHCAT44Neutral$127.18M-0.46-129.70%―-7.54%-143.41%
MSPRMSPR40Underperform$140.0080.67%―――

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%MSPRCCLDPHRHCATONMDWAYDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26
MSPR and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MSPRMsp Recovery, Inc.0.01-0.51-98.08%
CCLDCarecloud, Inc.1.76-1.25-41.53%
PHRPhreesia12.44-10.29-45.27%
HCATHealth Catalyst1.69-1.45-46.18%
ONMDOnemednet Corp4.22-13.48-76.16%
WAYWaystar Holding Corp.28.00-9.03-24.39%

MSP Recovery Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MSP Recovery Secures Short-Term Funding Under New Agreement

Neutral
Jul 13, 2026

On July 8, 2026, MSP Recovery entered into a letter agreement with VRM MSP Recovery Partners under which VRM provided a one-time $0.3 million advance to cover certain operating expenses, while explicitly declining any obligation for future funding an...

Delistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance

MSP Recovery Stock Shifted to OTC Expert Market

Negative
Jul 8, 2026

MSP Recovery, Inc. has failed to file its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025 and its quarterly report for the period ended March 31, 2026 with the SEC, leaving the company non-compliant with Rule 15c2-11 disclosure requirements. As a...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MSP Recovery Secures One-Time Advance Under Credit Facility

Negative
Jun 30, 2026

On June 26, 2026, MSP Recovery, Inc., through its subsidiaries, obtained a one-time $0.2 million advance from Hazel Partners Holdings LLC under its existing working capital credit facility to cover operating expenses. The advance was made under Hazel...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MSP Recovery Secures Discretionary Short-Term Operating Advance

Negative
Jun 18, 2026

MSP Recovery, Inc. disclosed that on June 11, 2026, its subsidiaries entered into a letter agreement with Hazel Partners Holdings LLC, the administrative agent and lender under its existing working capital credit facility, for a discretionary $0.1 mi...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MSP Recovery Secures Small One-Time Short-Term Funding Support

Negative
Jun 4, 2026

On May 29, 2026, MSP Recovery, Inc., through its subsidiaries, obtained a one-time $0.1 million advance from Hazel Partners Holdings LLC under its existing working capital credit facility, to be used primarily for operating expenses. The funding mode...

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

MSP Recovery Faces OTC Market Downgrade Amid Liquidity Strain

Negative
May 19, 2026

On May 15, 2026, MSP Recovery secured a $0.1 million discretionary advance from Hazel Partners Holdings under its existing working capital credit facility, earmarked primarily for operating expenses, after previously exhausting the facility’s O...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MSP Recovery Secures One-Time Advances Amid Liquidity Strain

Negative
May 6, 2026

On May 1, 2026, MSP Recovery, Inc., through its subsidiaries, entered into a letter agreement with Hazel Partners Holdings LLC, under its existing working capital credit facility, to secure a one-time discretionary advance of $0.1 million primarily f...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026