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Marston's
(LSE:92IP)
Select Model
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
98.00 p
▲(8.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/12/26
The score is primarily supported by improved financial performance (return to profitability and strong cash generation) and a low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by balance-sheet leverage and limited technical trend/momentum signals, which together keep the overall score in the upper-mid range rather than high.
Positive Factors
Return to profitability
The return to £71.6m of net income after losses in 2023 and 2024, alongside stronger operating profitability, indicates a meaningful recovery in the earnings base. This can improve internal funding capacity and provide a more resilient platform for pub operations over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A debt-heavy balance sheet leaves Marston’s with less flexibility than a lightly financed operator. If trading weakens or refinancing costs rise, more cash may need to be directed toward debt obligations, limiting investment capacity and increasing sensitivity to operating setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Return to profitability
The return to £71.6m of net income after losses in 2023 and 2024, alongside stronger operating profitability, indicates a meaningful recovery in the earnings base. This can improve internal funding capacity and provide a more resilient platform for pub operations over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Marston's (92IP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£302.15M
Dividend Yield371.8%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.1
Beta (1Y)0.00
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees10,362
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares OutstandingN/A
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)<0.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00704
P/FCF Ratio0.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Marston's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marston's PLC functions as both a major brewer and an extensive pub operator. Across the United Kingdom, the company directly oversees a portfolio of over 1,500 public houses, operating under well-known banners such as Marston's Two For One, Miles...
How the Company Makes Money
Marston's makes money primarily by operating pubs and generating revenue from in-venue customer spend. Its core revenue stream is retail sales in pubs, mainly from (1) drink sales (beer, cider, spirits, wine, and soft drinks) and (2) food sales (m...
Marston's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Dec 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial story: strong profit growth (PBT +71%), margin expansion (+140bps), exceeded recurring free cash flow targets (GBP 53.2m), successful format tests (31 launches, +23% revenue uplift, >30% EBITDA returns) and tangible deleveraging (net debt-to-EBITDA down to 4.6x). Key risks noted include reported revenue being flat after disposals, elevated leverage that remains above the sub-4x target, higher ongoing CapEx, cash tax stepping up in FY26, and limited headroom as free cash is absorbed by scheduled debt repayments. On balance, the positive delivery on targets, strong cash generation and credible growth initiatives outweigh the near-term constraints and execution risks.Positive Updates
Strong Profit Growth
Underlying profit before tax of GBP 72m, up 71% year-on-year (nearly 3x the level two years prior), driven by higher EBITDA and lower finance costs.
Negative Updates
Reported Revenue Flat and Disposal Impact
Reported revenue broadly flat at GBP 898m; FY24/25 disposal program reduced revenue by ~GBP 40m (c. GBP 50m of assets sold), masking headline growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profit Growth
Underlying profit before tax of GBP 72m, up 71% year-on-year (nearly 3x the level two years prior), driven by higher EBITDA and lower finance costs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that FY26 trading is broadly in line with FY25 — like‑for‑like sales are tracking flat with Christmas bookings up 11% — and they expect further margin progress toward the CMD target of a 200–300bps uplift versus FY24 (i.e., aiming toward a 23.4–24.4% EBITDA margin) after delivering a 140bps increase to 22.8% in FY25 (EBITDA £205m); they will accelerate formats with at least ~50 refurbishments in 2026 (after 31 in FY25 that drove ~23% revenue uplifts and >30% EBITDA returns at ~£260k per site), run Group CapEx around 7–8% of revenue, expect recurring free cash flow of c.£50m again, see cash tax rising to ~£10m in FY26 (normalising by 2028), and continue to delever from current c.4.6x net‑debt/EBITDA toward a sub‑4x (pre‑IFRS16) threshold before restarting shareholder returns.Marston's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 897.90M | 898.60M | 872.30M | 799.60M | 401.70M |
| Gross Profit | 509.90M | 489.10M | 435.70M | 335.40M | 74.20M |
| EBITDA | 223.50M | 166.20M | 115.30M | 296.20M | -34.20M |
| Net Income | 71.60M | -18.50M | -9.30M | 137.20M | -127.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.32B | 2.21B | 2.45B | 2.52B | 2.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.90M | 45.50M | 29.60M | 30.70M | 35.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.30B | 1.60B | 1.62B | 1.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.53B | 1.56B | 1.81B | 1.87B | 2.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 790.70M | 654.80M | 640.10M | 648.10M | 406.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 138.00M | 161.20M | 75.90M | -14.60M | -107.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 199.20M | 207.40M | 141.20M | 55.50M | -61.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.20M | 211.90M | -9.80M | -29.10M | 197.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -154.60M | -401.40M | -132.60M | -30.90M | -145.10M |
Marston's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | £1.59B | 8.69 | 6.41% | 2.89% | 2.96% | 9.30% | |
69 Neutral | £762.84M | 15.96 | 15.81% | 1.53% | 5.39% | -3.64% | |
68 Neutral | £302.15M | 4.06 | 9.30% | 371.80% | ― | ― | |
62 Neutral | £467.09M | 18.42 | 3.55% | 2.95% | 4.61% | 186.38% | |
60 Neutral | £302.15M | 4.06 | 9.30% | 6.05% | -0.52% | 68.53% | |
59 Neutral | £362.10M | 17.74 | 5.14% | 3.06% | 5.71% | -19.77% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
GB:92IP
Marston's
90.00
-5.00
-5.26%
GB:FSTA
Fuller Smith & Turner
692.00
142.82
26.01%
GB:MARS
Marston's
46.60
7.45
19.03%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
269.50
1.00
0.37%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
782.00
88.31
12.73%
GB:YNGA
Young & Co'S Brewery
829.00
48.83
6.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.