Embraer (EMY) AI Stock Analysis

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Embraer

(Frankfurt:EMY)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Record Backlog and Broad DemandThe record backlog and broad-based growth across commercial, executive, defense and services indicate strong demand diversification. A large order pipeline supports future deliveries and revenue visibility, while multiple growing segments reduce reliance on any single aviation market.

Negative Factors

Low Commercial Aviation MarginsCommercial Aviation remains a relatively weak contributor to profitability despite revenue growth and stronger orders. The low current margin means execution, pricing and delivery improvements are still needed before the segment can provide earnings stability comparable with higher-margin businesses.

Embraer (EMY) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 15.14B
Dividend Yield: 1.11%
Average Volume (3M): 198
Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.0
Beta (1Y): 0.70
Revenue Growth: 14.27%
EPS Growth: 26.62%
Country: Germany
Employees: 21,122
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Embraer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Embraer SA engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and its parts for commercial, defense, and executive aviation sectors. It operates through the following segments: Commercial Aviation, Defense and Security, Executive Jet Business,...

Embraer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:10.42%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall, with record revenue and backlog, broad-based growth across all business units, raised revenue and free cash flow guidance, improving balance-sheet strength and continued demand for Embraer's aircraft and services. Offsetting issues included lower adjusted net income, low Commercial Aviation margins, expected fourth-quarter Defense margin normalization, ongoing component shortages and uncertainty around certification and future product decisions. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and All-Time-High Backlog

Embraer delivered record third-quarter revenue of $2.3 billion, while consolidated net revenue reached $2.35 billion, up 17% year-over-year. Backlog reached a new all-time high of $35.7 billion for the eighth consecutive quarter, up 14% year-over-year.

Negative Updates

Lower Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted net income was $74 million in the quarter, with a 3.1% margin versus 4.2% a year ago. The year-over-year decrease mainly reflected higher financial expenses from the mark-to-market of the long-term incentive plan and higher taxes.

Company Guidance

For 2026, Embraer stands by guidance to deliver 80 to 85 aircraft in Commercial Aviation and 160 to 170 aircraft in Executive Aviation, with revenue guidance increased to between $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, adjusted EBIT margin unchanged at between 10% and 10.6%, and adjusted free cash flow raised to $700 million or higher; Commercial Aviation is expected to reach a 5% EBIT until 2028, Services & Support margins can be better until the end of the decade, close to 17 to 18%, and Executive Aviation targets reaching 200 units in 2028, with CapEx in 2027, '28 expected to temporarily increase towards $500 million, $550 million before coming back to the regular level of $400 million; free cash flow to EBITDA is expected to be below 50% next year and, 2028 onwards, around this average, while Eve’s guidance is about $225 million, with a run rate close to $50 million, $55 million per quarter, full transition expected before year-end, 6 prototypes through the first half of '27, and the certification flight campaign starting in the mid-'27 and finishing in '28; OGMA revenue is expected to get up to $600 million by 2030.

Embraer Risk Analysis

Embraer disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Embraer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.We do not have a controlling shareholder and as a result we may be subject to certain risks.Q4, 2023

2.We are subject to significant competition.Q4, 2023

3.We face risks of being engaged in a global business and operating in global industries, which may adversely affect us.Q4, 2023

Embraer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

DE:EMY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GD	80Outperform	$99.29B	21.31	17.60%	1.71%	9.73%	10.46%
LMT	79Outperform	$139.32B	21.33	78.85%	2.29%	7.86%	57.22%
TXT	75Outperform	$14.71B	15.59	12.14%	0.09%	8.51%	22.24%
SARO	66Neutral	$9.35B	26.63	12.78%	―	8.72%	89.83%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BA	50Neutral	$137.39B	18.15	127.13%	―	17.53%	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:EMY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:EMY	Embraer S.A. Adr	74.20	20.20	37.40%
BA	Boeing Company	173.38	-22.12	-11.31%
GD	General Dynamics	367.44	24.20	7.05%
LMT	Lockheed Martin	603.12	157.59	35.37%
TXT	Textron	86.82	4.42	5.36%
SARO	StandardAero, Inc.	28.49	2.13	8.08%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Embraer AI Stock Analysis