National Australia Bank Limited (NAL) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects to reduce its internal workforce by 2,500 roles, or about 6%, over fiscal '27, with workforce changes expected to provide around $250 million to $300 million of P&L impact booked in 2027 benefit and a run rate a little higher into '28; underlying cost growth is expected to be less than 3% in FY '27, the restructuring charge is expected to be $300 million in the first quarter of 2027, software capitalization policy changes are expected to impact costs by $125 million, investment spend is expected to be approximately $1.8 billion with an OpEx ratio of around 55% to 60%, and depreciation and amortization is expected to remain a headwind in FY '27 before stabilizing into FY '28; business credit growth is expected to moderate to 8% in 2027, while Business and Private Banking credit growth is expected to be 7% or 8% next year, Markets and Treasury revenue is expected to be around that $1.7 billion, $1.8 billion a year as being relatively sustainable going forward, AQ-related RWA increases are expected to be around $6.5 billion through the course of FY '27 if the economic base case plays out, replicating portfolio tailwinds are estimated at approximately 3 basis points, a 9 basis point move in the bills-OIS spread is equivalent to 1 basis point impact on NIM, New Zealand lending and deposits are growing in mid-single-digit run rates with better profit growth into '27 expected, and the final 2026 DRP with a 1.5% discount is expected to raise approximately $900 million or 20 basis points of CET1 capital, taking the pro forma ratio to 12.07%.