Goodman Group (MY4) AI Stock Analysis

Goodman Group

(BX Swiss:MY4)

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Positive Factors

Large development pipeline and data-center expansionThe sizeable, multi-year pipeline supports future development income and portfolio growth. Data-center exposure adds a structurally attractive end market, while partnership funding reduces the capital burden of scaling these projects.

Negative Factors

Lower management and performance feesThe sharp reduction in transactional and performance fees shows that part of Goodman’s earnings remains sensitive to capital-market activity and fund outcomes. A lower fee contribution can weigh on earnings quality even while recurring AUM expands.

Goodman Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goodman Group operates as a globally integrated real estate enterprise, with active operations spanning Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, North America, and Brazil. Comprising the stapled entities Goodman Limited,...

Goodman Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026(Q4-2026)|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

Positive overall. The call emphasized strong execution on a multi-year strategic repositioning into data centers and large-scale logistics, substantial scale with an $89 billion portfolio and nearly $20 billion of WIP, a material signed hyperscaler lease (50 MW Tsukuba), solid operating profit ($2.675B) and EPS growth (+10.1%), and a conservative capital structure (6.5% gearing, $6.4B cash). Key challenges include a drop in management transactional/performance fees, FX/headline volatility, operating cash flow pressure due to heavy reinvestment into development and partnerships, and planning/power constraints in certain markets. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the size of the pipeline, customer commitments, partnership funding model and robust liquidity.

Positive Updates

Large-scale portfolio and development pipeline

Portfolio approaching $90 billion (reported $89 billion) with work in progress (WIP) of almost $20 billion and a data center WIP completion value of over $15 billion containing ~500 megawatts of capacity across 10 developments in eight metro data center markets.

Negative Updates

Management revenue decline and lower transactional/performance fees

Management revenue decreased by $147 million year-on-year (including $9 million FX translation effect), driven by a fall in performance and transactional revenues to $206 million from $372 million in the prior year (≈-44.6%).

Company Guidance

Guidance: Goodman is targeting FY‑27 EPS growth of 9% on FY‑26, with earnings expected to be skewed to H2; management reiterates long‑term fee revenue of ~0.9% of third‑party stabilized AUM and currently reports fee revenue at 1% of stabilized AUM. The group enters FY‑27 with a near $90bn portfolio ($89bn at June), $75.4bn external AUM (stabilized AUM averaged $68.7bn), almost $20bn of work‑in‑progress (WIP) (annualized production >$7.5bn) and a data‑center WIP completion value of >$15bn (almost 500MW, 10 developments across 8 metro markets, with ~90% funded through partnerships); deliveries are scheduled from 2027–2030 and notable milestones include a 50MW, 20‑year leased first phase at the 1GW Tsukuba project ready in early 2028. Capital settings remain conservative: gearing ~6.5%, ~$6.4bn cash and undrawn facilities, net WACD ~1% (average borrowing ~4.6%), and Goodman generated $2.675bn operating profit in FY‑26 (10.1% operating EPS growth) with $2.7bn cash‑backed earnings.

Goodman Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

CH:MY4 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AU:CLW	77Outperform	AUD 2.46B	8.73	8.20%	7.52%	39.66%	133.43%
AU:GPT	74Outperform	AUD 9.35B	9.09	9.83%	4.90%	-7.59%	178.60%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AU:DXS	64Neutral	AUD 6.13B	13.18	4.83%	6.39%	-28.16%	250.74%
AU:CHC	54Neutral	AUD 9.75B	27.98	20.47%	2.44%	-19.06%	6.95%
AU:GOZ	50Neutral	AUD 1.48B	17.02	3.90%	9.15%	-0.03%	―

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CH:MY4 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
AU:CHC	Charter Hall Group	20.78	-0.81	-3.75%
AU:DXS	Dexus	5.79	-0.96	-14.23%
AU:GPT	GPT Group	4.95	-0.08	-1.65%
AU:GOZ	Growthpoint Properties Australia	2.01	-0.35	-14.76%
AU:CLW	Charter Hall Long WALE REIT	3.39	-0.53	-13.59%

Glossary

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Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Goodman Group AI Stock Analysis