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Theta Gold Mines (TGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TGM

Theta Gold Mines

(ASX:TGM)

Select Model
Rating:41.1Neutral
Price Target:AUD 0.18â–¼(-9.23% Downside)
Action:upgraded
Date:10/01/26

The overall score is low, primarily reflecting Theta Gold Mines’ pre-production status with no revenue, ongoing losses, negative cash flows, and a leveraged balance sheet that together signal high financial risk. Secondary pressure comes from a weak technical picture, with the share price below key moving averages and mildly bearish momentum. Valuation metrics offer little support given the negative P/E and lack of dividends, making the investment case heavily dependent on future project execution rather than current fundamentals.

Positive Factors
Balance-sheet repairThe return to positive equity provides a constructive foundation after the negative-equity period in 2023–2024. Although leverage remains elevated, this repair may improve financial resilience and support continued project advancement if funding needs are managed carefully.
Negative Factors
No commercial revenueThe absence of revenue through 2026 confirms that the company has not yet reached commercial operating scale. This leaves future value dependent on successful development and eventual production, while providing no established sales base to fund ongoing corporate and project costs.

Theta Gold Mines (TGM) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%AU:TGM+18.18%EWA+13.51%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
AUD 77.97M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
245.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-29.2
Beta (1Y)
1.02
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
59.02%
Country
Australia
Employees
80
Sector
Basic Materials
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Gold

Theta Gold Mines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Specializing in gold exploration and development, Theta Gold Mines Limited conducts its operations within South Africa. The Theta project, located near the town of Pilgrim's Rest in Mpumalanga Province, serves as its principal asset. Established in 2...

How the Company Makes Money

null

Theta Gold Mines Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Theta Gold Mines is a pre-production company with no revenue, recurring operating and net losses, persistently negative operating and free cash flow, and high leverage despite a stronger asset and equity base, resulting in a low but not minimum financial performance score.

Income Statement

23Negative

Balance Sheet

38Negative

Cash Flow

19Very Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue000000
Gross Profit0-290.50K0-116.00K-1.15M-605.36K
EBITDA-2.93M-7.91M-4.47M-3.57M-4.66M-5.11M
Net Income-3.32M-3.14M-6.89M-6.39M-10.45M-10.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets145.24M145.24M29.31M23.80M29.45M28.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.00M9.00M5.62M2.59M2.88M31.99K
Total Debt90.44M90.44M15.41M17.74M20.07M17.31M
Total Liabilities112.00M112.00M24.16M25.92M30.48M21.87M
Stockholders Equity33.24M33.24M5.15M-2.12M-1.03M7.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-7.41M-7.57M-4.81M-6.18M-5.61M-10.69M
Operating Cash Flow-6.55M-6.69M-2.48M-4.45M-4.16M-6.44M
Investing Cash Flow-19.69M-19.97M-2.54M-2.59M-786.44K-5.07M
Financing Cash Flow29.33M29.99M8.05M7.71M7.77M11.27M

Theta Gold Mines Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price0.20

Price Trends

50DMA0.19Positive
100DMA0.19Positive
200DMA0.20Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.00Negative
RSI59.81Neutral
STOCH66.67Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.19, above the 50-day MA of 0.19, and below the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TGM.

Theta Gold Mines Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AU:TGM against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
AU:TBRAU:TBR68NeutralAUD 272.31M3.5825.21%3.82%28.38%127.83%
Sector *61Neutral$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
AU:AS1AU:AS153NeutralAUD 240.74M-50.00-4.59%――-53.33%
AU:STNAU:STN44NeutralAUD 289.59M-27.50-5.89%――9.68%
AU:VTMAU:VTM43NeutralAUD 168.54M-32.20-20.08%――-21.85%
AU:BGDAU:BGD42NeutralAUD 216.16M-8.51-80.60%―-100.00%-1011.90%
AU:TGMAU:TGM41NeutralAUD 268.34M-29.19-12.57%――59.02%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%AU:TGMAU:TBRAU:STNAU:BGDAU:AS1AU:VTMDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
AU:TGM and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AU:TGMTheta Gold Mines Ltd.0.200.0421.88%
AU:TBRTribune Resources Limited5.19-1.31-20.15%
AU:STNSaturn Metals Ltd.0.39-0.08-17.20%
AU:BGDBarton Gold Holdings Limited0.80-0.37-32.05%
AU:AS1Golden Rim Resources Ltd0.120.0464.29%
AU:VTMVictory Goldfields Limited1.270.108.97%

Theta Gold Mines Corporate Events

Theta Gold Mines Details Project Progress and 2026 Operational Milestones

Sep 30, 2026

Theta Gold Mines’ 2026 annual report outlines progress across its gold operations, highlighted by the construction of the TGME gold plant and advancement of key project permits and mining rights. The report also details milestones in ESG and su...

Theta Gold Mines Updates Market on Director’s Revised Equity Holdings

Sep 29, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has disclosed a change in the securities held by director Byron Karl Lester Dumpleton, filing the required Appendix 3Y notice with the ASX. The update details his existing holdings of fully paid ordinary shares, various tranches of u...

Theta Gold Mines Issues Nearly 39 Million New Shares After Funding Milestones Met

Sep 23, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has expanded its issued capital by 38,968,769 fully paid ordinary shares, comprising 34,568,769 shares from the exercise of unlisted options at $0.1722 per share and 4,400,000 shares from the conversion of performance rights linked t...

Theta Gold Mines Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 39 Million New Shares

Sep 23, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has applied to the ASX for quotation of 38,968,769 new ordinary fully paid shares under its TGM ticker, following the exercise of options or conversion of other securities. The new shares, issued on 22 September 2026, will expand the...

Theta Gold Mines boosts balance sheet with option exercises and vested performance rights

Sep 23, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has strengthened its capital base by issuing 34,568,769 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of an equivalent number of unlisted options, providing additional funding as it advances development of the TGME Gold Proje...

Theta Gold Mines Raises A$5.95m as Options Exercised, Incentive Awards Vest

Sep 18, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has strengthened its capital position after long-term institutional investor Hong Kong Ruihua Green Development exercised 34,568,769 unlisted options, generating about A$5.95 million and leading to the issue of an equivalent number o...

Theta Gold Mines Requests ASX Trading Halt Ahead of Bond Facility Update

Sep 9, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities on the ASX, effective 9 September 2026, pending an announcement related to the first drawdown under its Bond facility. The halt will remain in place until either the funding-rela...

Theta Gold Mines Issues New Shares to Raise Capital

Aug 10, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited, an Australian-listed gold mining and exploration company, operates in the resources sector with a focus on developing and advancing gold projects. The group targets investors looking for exposure to gold assets and maintains...

Theta Gold Mines Seeks ASX Quotation for 32.8 Million New Shares

Aug 10, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 32,800,000 ordinary fully paid shares under its issuer code TGM. The new securities, issued on August 7, 2026, represent an expansion of the company’s listed equity base.The appli...

Theta Gold Mines Plans 32.8 Million-Share ASX Placement

Aug 7, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed placement of up to 32.8 million ordinary fully paid shares. The new securities are intended to be quoted on the ASX, with the issue date set for 7 August 2026, reflecting the company’s...

Theta Gold Mines Converts US$11.6m Unsecured Loan into Equity

Aug 7, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has agreed to convert a long-standing unsecured loan into equity by issuing 32.8 million fully paid ordinary shares at a deemed price of A$0.18 per share. The shares will be issued to Sadiva (Pty) Ltd, which acquired the loan from Ti...

Theta Gold Mines secures funding and advances TGME construction toward first gold

Jul 31, 2026

Theta Gold Mines reported strong progress at its TGME Gold Project for the June 2026 quarter, underpinned by securing a US$90 million bond facility and completing an additional US$18.6 million equity raise in early July. These financings are intended...

Theta Gold Mines Appoints New Director With No Declared Securities Interests

Jul 10, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has appointed Ching (Sharon) Iu as a director effective 10 July 2026, signaling a change in the company’s board composition. The appointment was disclosed to the ASX under listing rule requirements, highlighting the com...

Theta Gold Mines strengthens board with appointment of Sharon Iu

Jul 10, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has appointed Ms Ching (Sharon) Iu as a Non-Executive Director, effective 10 July 2026, bringing more than a decade of international mining and corporate finance experience across metals and natural resources. Formerly representing C...

Theta Gold Mines Raises Capital Through Share Placement and Option Exercise

Jul 3, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has issued 147,570,138 new fully paid ordinary shares following the completion of a capital raising that combined a placement and the exercise of options. The placement comprised 125,832,956 shares issued to professional and...

Theta Gold Mines Seeks ASX Quotation for 21.7 Million New Shares

Jul 3, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has applied for quotation of 21,737,182 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, with the issue dated July 3, 2026. The additional securities, arising from the exercise of options or conversion of other instruments, will ex...

Theta Gold Mines Seeks ASX Quotation for 125.8 Million New Shares

Jul 3, 2026

Theta Gold Mines Limited has moved to expand its listed equity base, applying for quotation on the ASX of 125,832,956 new ordinary fully paid shares under code TGM. The securities, issued on July 3, 2026, stem from previously announced transactions a...

Theta Gold Mines Secures US$18.6m Through Equity Raise and Option Exercise

Jul 3, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has completed a US$18.6 million equity raise and options exercise, issuing 147,570,138 new fully paid ordinary shares to professional and sophisticated investors. The funding round included a US$10 million cornerstone investment from...

Theta Gold Mines Adjusts Sydney Office Address as TGME Project Advances

Jul 1, 2026

Theta Gold Mines has updated the location of its registered and principal offices within International Tower One at Barangaroo in Sydney, shifting from Suite 80 to Suite 68 on Level 35. The move is administrative in nature, with the company maintaini...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2026