Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) AI Stock Analysis

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Adaptive Biotechnologies

(NASDAQ:ADPT)

Select Model

Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:

$15.50

▲(7.79% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by the strong technical analysis and positive earnings call sentiment. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow, weigh down the score. Valuation concerns due to negative earnings further impact the overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth in clonoSEQ indicates robust demand and market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion and sustainability.

Improved Margins

Improved gross margins reflect operational efficiency and cost management, enhancing profitability potential and financial health over time.

Regulatory Developments

Positive regulatory developments can expand market opportunities and enhance credibility, driving future growth and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability challenges with negative margins indicate difficulties in achieving sustainable earnings, impacting long-term financial stability.

Cash Flow Issues

Inefficient cash conversion from earnings suggests potential liquidity constraints, affecting the company's ability to invest and grow.

High Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can erode profitability and limit financial flexibility, posing risks to long-term operational efficiency.

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.19B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.97M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.67

Revenue Growth21.60%

EPS Growth44.48%

CountryUS

Employees619

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength45

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.17

Shares Outstanding152,273,910

10 Day Avg. Volume2,296,580

30 Day Avg. Volume1,968,857

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.82

Enterprise Value/Revenue8.73

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.22

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-18.17

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.00

Price Target Upside4.31% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue primarily through its diagnostic and research services. Key revenue streams include the sale of its clonoSEQ testing services, which are used by healthcare providers to monitor patients with blood cancers, as well as immune profiling services that cater to both clinical and research applications. The company also engages in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for the development of new therapies, which can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on product sales. Additionally, revenue is supplemented through collaborations with academic institutions and other organizations focused on advancing personalized medicine.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered

Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Indicates the volume of Clonoseq tests performed, reflecting demand for this diagnostic tool and its contribution to revenue growth.

Chart InsightsAdaptive Biotechnologies is experiencing robust growth in clonoSEQ test deliveries, with a notable increase driven by updated NCCN guidelines and expanded reimbursement. The earnings call highlights a 57% year-over-year revenue growth for clonoSEQ, reflecting strong demand. The MRD business has achieved profitability, and the company has improved its financial metrics significantly, raising full-year guidance. However, future growth may depend on milestone payments and collaborations, with limited immediate impact from the NeoGenomics partnership. This momentum suggests a positive outlook, but investors should monitor dependency on external factors.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong performance in the MRD business with significant revenue growth and profitability, improved gross margins, and successful EMR integrations. Despite high operating expenses and a continued loss in the Immune Medicine segment, the company is optimistic about future growth and has raised its full year guidance.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

MRD Business Profitability

The MRD business achieved profitability this quarter, delivering approximately $2 million in positive adjusted EBITDA. MRD revenue grew 42% year-over-year, driven by significant increases in clinical volume.

Strong clonoSEQ Performance

clonoSEQ revenue grew 57% year-over-year in the second quarter, driven by strong demand across all reimbursed indications with over 25,300 tests delivered, up 37% versus prior year and 10% sequentially.

Improved Sequencing Gross Margin

Total company sequencing gross margin improved by 14 percentage points year-over-year to 64%.

Cash Position and Guidance Raise

Cash burn for the quarter was approximately $11 million, a 36% improvement over the same period last year, ending with a solid cash position of $222 million. Full year guidance was raised to reflect a higher MRD revenue range and a lower annual cash burn.

EMR Integration Expansion

clonoSEQ was integrated into Flatiron's OncoEMR across 113 community account groups and expanded Epic integration to 40 sites, resulting in accounts growing on average about 2x faster than nonintegrated accounts.

Positive Regulatory Developments

The European Medicines Agency, CHMP, issued a positive opinion supporting the use of MRD testing as an early endpoint for conditional approval in multiple myeloma.

Negative Updates

High Operating Expenses

Total operating expenses for the quarter, inclusive of cost of revenue, were $83.9 million, representing a 1% increase from last year, mainly driven by higher sales and marketing spend and higher people costs.

Immune Medicine Adjusted EBITDA Loss

Immune Medicine adjusted EBITDA loss improved 14% versus Q2 of last year, but the segment still operates at a loss.

Company Guidance

During the call, Adaptive Biotechnologies provided updated guidance, raising their full-year MRD revenue forecast to a range of $190 million to $200 million, reflecting a 31% to 37% growth versus fiscal year 2024. This increase is driven by stronger-than-expected clinical volume performance and higher anticipated MRD milestone revenue, projected to be between $14 million and $15 million. The company also reported a 36% improvement in cash burn for the quarter, reducing it to approximately $11 million, and ended with a solid cash position of $222 million. ClonoSEQ revenue grew 57% year-over-year in the second quarter, with test volumes increasing by 37% to 25,321 tests, and an ASP growth of 17% to $1,290 per test. The MRD business achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 million, marking a significant milestone and setting the stage for continued profitability. The company also highlighted improvements in sequencing gross margin by 14 percentage points year-over-year to 64%, and noted progress in their pharma business with a $218 million backlog, up 21% from the prior year.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adaptive Biotechnologies shows revenue growth but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The debt level is manageable, but negative returns on equity and cash flow inefficiencies pose risks.

Income Statement

Neutral

Adaptive Biotechnologies shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a revenue growth rate of 8.28% TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -74.84%, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 61.06%, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet of Adaptive Biotechnologies is moderately stable. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.46, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative at -66.09%, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 36.18%, showing a reasonable level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Negative

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.97, indicating that the company is not converting its earnings into cash effectively. Free cash flow growth is negative at -6.7%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, showing some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	205.22M	178.96M	170.28M	185.31M	154.34M	98.38M
Gross Profit	135.53M	106.88M	94.72M	127.40M	105.04M	75.85M
EBITDA	-98.63M	-128.76M	-189.27M	-167.98M	-193.34M	-144.34M
Net Income	-121.23M	-159.49M	-225.25M	-142.46M	-205.61M	-139.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	496.64M	539.38M	661.13M	856.62M	923.34M	1.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.87M	222.29M	346.40M	498.20M	353.06M	688.27M
Total Debt	84.37M	89.39M	229.43M	108.00M	111.74M	107.86M
Total Liabilities	317.10M	336.89M	352.86M	392.52M	319.24M	373.15M
Stockholders Equity	179.72M	202.71M	308.40M	464.17M	603.99M	743.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-82.81M	-98.88M	-167.02M	-200.29M	-254.47M	-168.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-80.47M	-95.21M	-156.32M	-183.94M	-192.73M	-149.68M
Investing Cash Flow	56.33M	77.79M	129.65M	2.90M	181.21M	-117.04M
Financing Cash Flow	7.23M	241.00K	2.25M	132.26M	27.15M	293.59M

Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.38

Price Trends

50DMA

12.65

Positive

100DMA

11.54

Positive

200DMA

9.58

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.46

Negative

RSI

59.41

Neutral

STOCH

68.48

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.41, above the 50-day MA of 12.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.

Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis

Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	72 Outperform	$1.57B	8.79	27.58%	―	17.74%	59.96%
IMCR	64 Neutral	$1.72B	―	-5.38%	―	26.90%	62.72%
ADPT	58 Neutral	$2.19B	―	-57.55%	―	21.60%	44.48%
ARQT	58 Neutral	$2.39B	―	-57.33%	―	99.50%	65.91%
RXRX	52 Neutral	$2.39B	―	-86.34%	―	30.14%	-10.08%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$2.95B	―	-77.58%	―	―	-48.38%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ADPT

Adaptive Biotechnologies

14.38

8.97

165.80%

IMVT

Immunovant

16.90

-12.50

-42.52%

ARQT

Arcutis Biotherapeutics

19.92

10.13

103.47%

HRMY

Harmony Biosciences Holdings

27.28

-7.10

-20.65%

IMCR

Immunocore Holdings

34.21

3.46

11.25%

RXRX

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

5.49

-0.69

-11.17%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2025