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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
62Neutral
Positive Factors
Market Position
Adaptive Biotechnologies’ first-quarter update was positive, and the stock remains a top small-cap idea for the balance of 2025.
Regulatory Milestones
Adaptive secures its first surveillance monitoring coverage win for clonoSEQ, which could signal similar expansion to other cancer types.
Revenue Growth
MRD clinical testing revenue increased by 55% year over year due to a record number of tests performed.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Management
ADPT has put explicit guardrails around limiting IM cash burn and made progress on initiatives to accelerate and drive sustained penetration in MRD.
Financial Concerns
Analyst was concerned about the cash burn from ADPT’s Immune Medicine business and awaited further penetration in MRD.
Valuation Concerns
The valuation has now aligned with comparable companies, suggesting a possible period of consolidation.
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.92
Revenue Growth8.61%
EPS Growth35.36%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.20
Shares Outstanding151,916,720
10 Day Avg. Volume2,381,368
30 Day Avg. Volume2,697,548
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.88
Price to Book (P/B)7.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-16.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside21.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies is a biotechnology company specializing in immune-driven medicine. The company operates in the healthcare sector, focusing on the development and commercialization of immunosequencing technologies that analyze the adaptive immune system. Its core products include immunoSEQ, a research platform, clonoSEQ, an FDA-cleared diagnostic test for minimal residual disease in blood cancers, and T-Detect, a diagnostic tool for infectious diseases and other conditions.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue through the sale of its diagnostic and research products. The primary revenue streams include the licensing of its immunoSEQ platform to research institutions and pharmaceutical companies for immune system analysis, as well as the sales of its clonoSEQ diagnostic test, which is used by healthcare providers to monitor minimal residual disease in patients with blood cancers. Additionally, Adaptive Biotechnologies earns revenue through partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for the development of new immunotherapies and other immune-driven treatments. These collaborations often involve milestone payments and royalties, contributing to the company's earnings.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Clonoseq Tests Delivered
Tracks the volume of Clonoseq tests conducted, offering insight into market penetration and acceptance of this specific product.
Tracks the volume of Clonoseq tests conducted, offering insight into market penetration and acceptance of this specific product.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataAdaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Adaptive Biotechnologies faces financial headwinds, with continuous losses impacting profitability and cash flow performance. While revenue growth offers a positive note, the company's ability to manage debt and improve cash generation remains critical for future stability and growth.Income Statement
Adaptive Biotechnologies has shown revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase from $178.96M to $189.53M. However, persistent negative net income and EBIT margins indicate ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin remains positive, highlighting effective cost management despite overall losses.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, indicating manageable leverage. However, shrinking stockholders' equity and declining total assets suggest weakening financial stability. The equity ratio shows a decreasing trend, reflecting increased liabilities relative to assets.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow persists, though there is a slight reduction in operating cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable, indicating challenges in translating operations into positive cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests inefficiencies in converting income into cash.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 189.53M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M | 98.38M | Gross Profit |
| 115.73M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M | 75.85M | EBIT |
| -135.51M | -162.55M | -227.03M | -200.19M | -208.97M | -152.82M | EBITDA |
| -119.04M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -167.98M | -193.34M | -144.34M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -141.84M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -142.46M | -205.61M | -139.64M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 193.42M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M | 688.27M | Total Assets |
| 510.85M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M | 1.12B | Total Debt |
| 86.90M | 89.39M | 229.43M | 108.00M | 111.74M | 107.86M | Net Debt |
| 36.25M | 41.47M | 164.37M | 17.97M | -27.32M | -15.57M | Total Liabilities |
| 320.63M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M | 373.15M | Stockholders Equity |
| 190.42M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M | 743.27M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -88.75M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M | -168.49M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -85.34M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M | -149.68M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 58.86M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M | -117.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 5.65M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M | 293.59M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
9.05
Price Trends
7.99
Positive
7.74
Positive
6.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
56.06
Neutral
33.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.44, above the 50-day MA of 7.99, and above the 200-day MA of 6.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $1.52B | ― | -5.78% | ― | 25.50% | 64.63% | |
62 Neutral | $1.37B | ― | -60.96% | ― | 8.61% | 35.36% | |
52 Neutral | $5.15B | 3.02 | -44.64% | 2.83% | 16.44% | -0.47% | |
48 Neutral | $778.73M | ― | -93.70% | ― | ― | -25.83% | |
42 Neutral | $1.14B | ― | -69.30% | ― | ― | -68.13% | |
42 Neutral | $902.41M | ― | -51.85% | ― | ― | 0.71% | |
39 Underperform | $554.33M | ― | -51.85% | ― | 11070.12% | 32.07% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
9.05
5.46
152.09%
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics
1.66
-8.69
-83.96%
SNDX
Syndax Pharmaceuticals
9.05
-11.20
-55.31%
ETNB
89bio
7.78
-1.16
-12.98%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
30.37
-22.78
-42.86%
PHVS
Pharvaris
16.56
-4.10
-19.85%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 22.96%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted robust growth in MRD revenue, improved gross margins, and strategic advancements in payer contracting, along with a significant reduction in cash burn. However, there was a slight decline in Immune Medicine revenue due to expected reductions in Genentech amortization.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong MRD Revenue Growth
MRD revenue increased by 34% to $43.7 million, with clinical and pharma contributions of 65% and 35%, respectively. ClonoSEQ clinical revenue grew by 55% versus the prior year.
Sequencing Gross Margin Improvement
Sequencing gross margin improved by 17 percentage points year-over-year to 62%.
Reduction in Operating Expenses
Operating expenses decreased by 9%, highlighting disciplined cost management.
Cash Burn Reduction
Cash burn for the quarter was $23 million, a 38% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Record ClonoSEQ Test Volumes
Tests delivered reached a new record high of over 23,000 in the quarter, representing a 36% increase versus the prior year.
Successful Payer Contracting
Closed six key agreements with major national payers, including Aetna, Humana, and Anthem, aiming for an average ASP of $1,300 per test for fiscal year 2025.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Immune Medicine Revenue
Immune Medicine revenue was $8.7 million, down 6% from a year ago, driven by an anticipated 23% decrease in Genentech amortization.
Company Guidance
During the earnings call for Adaptive Biotechnologies, the company provided updated guidance reflecting improved financial performance and strategic initiatives. They reported a 34% increase in MRD revenue year-over-year, driven by growth in clinical volumes, ASPs, and pharma sequencing. The company raised its full-year MRD revenue guidance to $180-$190 million, with an expectation of approximately 30% clonoSEQ test volume growth. Sequencing gross margin improved by 17 percentage points to 62%, and operating expenses decreased by 9%, resulting in a cash burn reduction of 38% compared to the previous year. Adaptive's cash position was reported at $233 million, providing confidence in achieving strategic objectives without raising additional capital. The company aims to achieve an average ASP of $1,300 per test for fiscal year 2025, with expectations to be adjusted EBITDA positive in the second half of the year. The management highlighted continued progress in their immune medicine business and upcoming launches and integrations to further drive growth.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.