XRP Risks Sharp Drop Unless Bulls Reclaim $2.58

XRP’s (XRP-USD) recent bounce to $2.42 may look strong on the surface, but under the hood, warning lights are flashing. Despite rallying more than 50% in the past five weeks, XRP is still trading nearly 30% below its January peak of $3.40. And that has some chart watchers calling this rally a bull trap.

RP Charts Flash Both Bull and Bear Patterns

According to chartist CW, XRP is in the middle of a falling wedge retest—a classic bullish continuation setup. If XRP holds above the wedge’s upper trendline, the next move could stretch to $3.60. CW argues this would confirm demand strength and renewed buyer momentum.

But there’s a catch. If XRP dips back into the wedge, that bullish dream fades fast. The risk? A drop back to $1.75 or lower.

Bearish Reversal Pattern Targets $0.50 XRP

At the same time, a looming inverse cup-and-handle pattern is forming. This setup spans from December 2024 to now and could be signaling a deeper drop. The danger zone sits around $1.11. A clean break below that neckline could open the floodgates to $0.50—a 80% plunge from here.

Volume’s been drying up. RSI is stuck near 50. The conditions for a breakdown are in place.

Whale Wallets Show Red Flags Below $2.58

XRP is now below the whale realized price of $2.58. That’s the average price paid by top holders with 10,000+ tokens. Historically, this isn’t a great sign. Prices tend to rebound briefly toward this level, only to roll over and fall further.

The September 2021 setup is a case in point. XRP briefly rose past the whale cost basis, then tanked below key levels. Based on that same theory, XRP could be dragged down toward $1.04 or even $0.67—the realized prices of smaller wallet cohorts.

For bulls to stay in the driver’s seat, they need to push XRP back above $2.58. A strong close above that could shift sentiment and possibly reignite ETF speculation. Until then, the bears are circling.

At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $2.42.