Morgan Stanley sees December quarter App Store forecast as ‘conservative’

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimates Apple’s App Store net revenue declined 3% year-over-year in the month of November based on data from Sensor Tower and said he was "encouraged" that downloads in international markets still grew in November despite pricing increases. Quarter to date through the end of November, App Store net revenue has declined 3% year-over-year, which is below his unchanged 1% year-over-year net revenue forecast for the full quarter, implying that the App Store needs to grow 4% year-over-year in the month of December to meet his quarterly forecast, which he now sees as "relatively conservative," Woodring said. The analyst, who still estimates a 6-7M iPhone production shortfall in the December quarter despite further headlines about iPhone production in China, keeps a $175 price target and Overweight rating on Apple shares.