BioNTech could be up 20%-30% if PCV readout impresses, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison is naming BioNTech as a "Catalyst Driven Idea" ahead of the readout of data from the company’s Phase 2 personalized cancer vaccine, or PCV, study. The firm’s base case expectation is that the combo arm achieves a hazard ratio, or HR, in the range of 0.69 – 0.75 with about a three to four month benefit in mPFS and believes management "could potentially still consider the study successful" in such a scenario given this is a "proof-of-concept" study with limited sample size. However, the firm believes most investors see a hazard ratio less than 0.65 as "a highly meaningful treatment effect" in a scenario where the study achieves statistical significancewith HR below 0.65 and greater than five months mPFS benefit the firm would expect the shares to be up 20%-30%. Morgan Stanley has an Equal Weight rating and $150 price target on BioNTech shares.