The company states: "In 2023, the Company projects total alumina shipments, including externally sourced alumina, to range between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.5 million metric tons from 2022 due to the partial curtailment of the San Ciprian refinery and lower bauxite quality at the Australian refineries. The Aluminum segment is expected to ship between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons, consistent with 2022 as additional shipments from the restart of the Alumar and Portland smelters are offset by lower anticipated trading volume. For Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects approximately $25 million higher costs from a Western Australia gas supply disruption to be offset by the non-recurrence of the Alumar refinery ARO adjustment. In early January 2023, in response to a domestic natural gas shortage in Western Australia due to production challenges experienced by key gas suppliers, Alcoa’s Kwinana and Pinjarra refineries converted to diesel as an immediate and temporary fuel source for some operational needs. Alcoa reduced production by approximately 30 percent at the Kwinana refinery by taking one production unit offline and reducing process flows. While gas supply has improved, and both refineries have reverted to full gas use, the Kwinana refinery continues to operate at a reduced production rate due to ongoing uncertainty in the gas market. Alcoa continues to monitor the situation and will consider the need for additional actions as the situation evolves. For Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa expects Norwegian smelter costs to be favorable by $70 million from the non-recurrence of carbon dioxide credit adjustments and lower energy costs. Additionally, the Company expects $15 million lower raw material costs and $15 million lower production costs."
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