These are good times for Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) investors, a statement that hasn’t been true for much of the past few years. The stock jumped 44% over the past week, as sentiment appears to be turning following the EV maker’s Q3 results and growing anticipation for the upcoming launch of the R2 SUV.
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Still, D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky notes that the quarter was a “bit more of the same,” which, as he puts it, is “not necessarily a bad thing.” Rivian continued to make solid progress on the R2, reduced tariff costs from a few thousand per vehicle to a few hundred, and teased an upcoming “Autonomy Day” next month.
Shlisky expects that the event will showcase Rivian’s latest technological advances. The company seems to be prioritizing autonomy features for personal use rather than pursuing a full-fledged robotaxi strategy. Even so, the R2 platform could still support “shared-ride applications.” In his view, Rivian aims to deliver vehicles that remain enjoyable to drive, using autonomy as an aid for routine tasks, such as commuting or running errands, without removing the active driving experience many consumers still value.
Looking ahead to 2026, Shlisky anticipates gradual margin improvement, with “real acceleration” likely in the second half of that year. The analyst expects a roughly break-even gross margin in 2025 due to temporary factors such as partial regulatory credit impacts and lingering tariff pressures. By early 2026, launch-related costs, including higher marketing spend for the R2, could weigh on results, but these should ease as R2 development concludes and production scales up. At that point, Shlisky foresees stronger volumes and lower R&D expenses across all product lines, supporting improved profitability.
While the overall tone of Shlisky’s analysis is constructive, he remains cautious. For a lasting sentiment shift, several catalysts still need to align: a successful R2 rollout, tangible progress in the Volkswagen partnership, a more supportive consumer environment, and firmer control over gross margins and EBITDA losses. All of these outcomes are achievable, he says, but he prefers to see clearer evidence before turning more optimistic.
“We’re staying on the sidelines, for now, given the balance of risks and opportunities ahead,” he summed up.
To this end, Shlisky assigns RIVN shares a Neutral rating and raises his price target from $13 to $15, though the stock currently trades about 14% above that level. (To watch Shlisky’s track record, click here)
8 other analysts join Shlisky on the RIVN fence, and with an additional 5 Buys and Sells, each, the consensus view is that the stock is a Hold (i.e., Neutral). Going by the $13.42 average price target, the shares have overshot by ~25%. (See RIVN stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.