Rumo SA: Balancing Record Performance with Future Uncertainties – Hold Rating Maintained

Analyst Julia Rizzo of Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Rumo SA, with a price target of BRL19.00.

Julia Rizzo has given her Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Rumo SA’s performance. Despite the company achieving record high transported kilometer units (TKU) in October, with a significant year-over-year increase, the visibility into future earnings remains limited. This uncertainty is reflected in the decision to maintain the EBITDA forecast for 2026 unchanged.
Rizzo acknowledges the positive momentum from increased grain and industrial volumes, which have bolstered the company’s fourth-quarter outlook. However, challenges such as delays in soybean planting due to irregular rainfall and potential impacts on corn yields introduce risks that temper the optimism. As a result, the Hold rating reflects a balanced view of the company’s current achievements against the backdrop of these uncertainties.