Tesla (TSLA) stock is facing another warning from GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson. He reiterated a Sell rating and $24.86 price target, arguing that Tesla’s valuation depends too heavily on its Robotaxi and FSD plans. The price target implies about 92% downside from current levels.
The call comes after Tesla’s second-quarter results. Johnson said, “The second quarter was ugly,” and pointed to a 1.4% operating margin, negative $1.1 billion in free cash flow, and a 20.4% energy gross margin. Tesla is also down 24.55% this year, compared with a 13.14% gain for the S&P 500 (SPX).
However, Johnson’s bigger concern is what investors are paying for Tesla’s future.
Johnson Raises Concerns About Tesla’s Robotaxi Plans
Johnson argues that Tesla’s Robotaxi story is not yet supported by the company’s FSD performance. He cited tracked data showing FSD v14 on HW4 disengaging about every 40 miles. His data covers 865 vehicles, with 18 active in the past week.
He also pointed to 22 collisions reported in NHTSA filings over the past 12 months. Johnson says those figures raise questions about whether Tesla’s autonomous driving technology is ready for the valuation investors have placed on it.
That concern also applies to the Cybercab. Johnson expects Tesla’s planned Austin event to generate attention, but he does not view it as proof that the product is ready for widespread use.
Johnson Questions Tesla’s Future Valuation
Johnson also questioned the valuations Tesla has assigned to its future businesses. He cited management estimates of about $20 trillion for Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot business, and roughly $5 trillion for autonomy and other businesses.
At the same time, he pointed to reports suggesting Tesla could become part of SpaceX within a year, at a valuation of $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Johnson argues those figures are difficult to reconcile.
He expects FSD to remain a major source of pressure on Tesla stock in the second half of 2026. His price target of $24.86 puts the shares far below current levels.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
On TipRanks, TSLA has a Hold consensus rating based on 10 Buys, 15 Holds, and three Sell ratings. The average Tesla price target of $377.43 implies 11.2% upside potential from current levels.
