Here’s a nice illustration of what a struggle 2020 has been for Sundial Growers (SNDL); Over the past few weeks, shares of the Canadian cannabis player more than doubled. Yet, despite this awesome move, the stock is still changing hands at an 83% discount to where it set off from at the start of the year.
The gains are swiftly evaporating, too. Over the last two trading sessions, the stock sold off after the company filed a shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that will allow it to raise up to $200 million by selling stock. Additionally, the company filed a prospectus for a new ATM equity program for up to $150 million of common shares.
In anyway, the sharp turn in fortune had less to do with a change in fundamentals but one which has been broadly felt across the entire cannabis sector.
There have been several reasons for the industry wide surge; Joe Biden’s win in the U.S. presidential election has brought with it the promise of reform at the federal level, plus a UN commission recently voted to take medical cannabis off the list of Schedule IV drugs. Most recently, the US House of Representatives passed the MORE act to end the federal prohibition on cannabis (which ultimately won’t pass if the Republicans hold the Senate).
CIBC analyst John Zamparo is certainly of the opinion any renaissance will be due to external macro factors.
“We suspect SNDL will benefit from an uplift to most cannabis names over the next few months, especially due to its U.S. listing, liquidity and lagging performance vs. peers,” the analyst said. “But we expect more investors to target those with strong balance sheets or those demonstrating sequential revenue growth.”
Which is certainly not the case with Sundial.
In 3Q20, revenue came in at $12.9 million, almost 50% below Zamparo’s $24.5 million projection. “While Canadian retail cannabis sales are growing ~25% Q/Q,” Zamparo noted, “For SNDL to move backward by 29% Q/Q on branded product sales is fairly remarkable.”
Zamparo has a Hold rating on SNDL shares along with a $0.4 price target. This figure implies a 10% downside from current levels (To watch Zamparo’s track record, click here)
Taking the bear thesis even further, ATB analyst David Kideckel rates Sundial shares an Underperform (i.e. Sell), along with a $0.20 price target. From current levels, this target implies a sharp 61% drop over the next months. (To watch Kideckel’s track record, click here)
The bear thesis is based on a “decline in Sundial’s recreational cannabis market share, a weaker free cash flow (FCF) outlook, and concerns over the Company’s shareholder dilution.”
While Kideckel believes “management is executing the right strategic shift to focus on the premium market,” the analyst foresees other near-term headwinds.
In the highly competitive Canadian cannabis industry, Kideckel counts factors “beyond management’s control,” such as product oversupply and pricing pressure to pose “additional execution risk to investors.”
All in all, the Street outlook for Sundial is pretty grim; The analyst consensus rates the stock a Moderate Sell based on one Hold and one Sell ratings. The $0.25 price target suggests shares will face downside to the tune of 51% over the next 12 months. (See SNDL analyst ratings on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
