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Shopify: What’s on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In
Stock Analysis & Ideas

Shopify: What’s on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In

The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.

Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (1Q22) slowing growth down to the usual suspects; consumers’ shift to offline retail and travel, difficult comps (which are expected to alleviate as the year progresses) and inflation, whereby consumers are more likely to pivot towards discount retailers.

With the company set to report Q2 earnings on July 27, Stifel’s Scott Devitt thinks the “near-term results may be further impacted by FX headwinds,” with the analyst noting non-US revenues account for ~36% of Shopify’s total haul.

With this in mind, to account for not only the recent strengthening of the US dollar, but also reflecting “weaker than expected consumer demand” for discretionary e-commerce, the analyst has lowered Q2 GMV/revenue and adj. net income estimates, which now all fall below Street expectations. GMV growth expectations for 2023 are also given a trim, with the analyst’s $260 billion estimate (+25% year-over-year), also coming in lower than the consensus calls for $267 million (+27% YoY).

That said, Devitt also thinks investors are by now well-aware of the current issues in the e-commerce space, and as such believes we might be “nearing a point where expectations for near-term growth have been appropriately reset.”

“After several quarters of slowing growth for Shopify and the broader eCommerce group,” the analyst went on to say, “we believe investors may look past further downward revisions following the 2Q print as near-term headwinds related to shifting consumer spend and inflation have been well-telegraphed at this point in the cycle.”

While Devitt might have lowered expectations for the quarter, a glance at website traffic in the period will be fodder for the bulls. Unique Visitors (UVs) are up sequentially by 31% while the year-over-year improvement is even more impressive, showing a 138% increase on the same period last year.

Down to the nitty-gritty, what does it all mean for investors? Devitt rates SHOP a Buy, although the price target is lowered from $65 to $55. Nevertheless, the figure still makes room for 12-month growth of 43%. (To watch Ellis’s track record, click here)

And what about the rest of the Street? Rating wise, opinions are mixed; the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 13 Buys, 14 Holds and 2 Sells. However, the average target is an extremely bullish one; the figure clocks in at $70.30, suggesting shares will climb ~83% higher in the year ahead. (See Shopify stock forecast on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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