Nvidia (NVDA) will kick off the week with its annual Analyst Day. While RBC’s Mitch Steves doesn’t expect the company to meaningfully alter its guidance or long-term outlook, the analyst has made a list of items investors should look out for.
Of most interest to Steves, will be the Q&A segment, which should provide “incremental data points” around Data Center, Automotive and Ethereum Mining.
The latter, especially, is expected to make a positive quarterly impact as part of Nvidia’s main revenue driver – the gaming division.
Steves anticipates a significant beat within the segment, boosted by a surge in Ethereum mining. While not gaming per se, mining involves GPUs, and Steves explains how Nvidia stands to benefit from the current bullish crypto environment.
“Using information from the public blockchain data we can see that the Ethereum Hash rate has increased by 163,533 GH/s from January 31 to April 8. This represents the amount of computing power being added to the network, and if we assume a $699 ASP with an average hash rate of 100MH/s it results in ~$1.15B in total revenue,” the 5-star analyst noted. “Roughly 2/3 of this likely comes from NVDA GPUs, and we take another 66% cut of the revenue line due to distribution, which results in ~$500M so far in the quarter.”
Crypto mining is already old hat when compared to another trend set to become increasingly lucrative. Steves notes the change in investor interest around the “inflection point for self-driving cars/self-driving NVDA content.” The analyst expects “meaningful revenue” from this opportunity for Nvidia’s Automotive segment by 2023.
Elsewhere, Steves says “product cycle comparisons from last year and the Mellanox transaction” have investors expecting Data Center revenue to drop. Steves isn’t worried here, though, and believes “demand remains healthy.”
So, that’s nice for Nvidia, but what does it all mean for investors? Steves rates NVDA as Outperform (i.e., Buy) backed by a $610 price target. There’s modest upside of 6% from current levels. (To watch Steves’ track record, click here)
The rest of the Street is more upbeat. The forecast is for 12-month gains of 12.5% given the average price target stands at $647.88. Rating wise, Nvidia remains a Wall Street favorite; based on 24 Buys vs. 4 Holds, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Strong Buy. (See Nvidia stock analysis on TipRanks)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.