LYFT: On Course to Reach EBITDA Profitability by Q3, Says Top Analyst

After the coronavirus made sure the new decade kicked off on a downbeat note, hopes are high the economic recovery will lead to a replication of the previous century’s Roaring Twenties.

Looking at Lyft’s (LYFT) latest quarterly statement, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives thinks the company is about to welcome them in.

“With WFH tailing off into the summer and a return to the office and leisure/ business travel set to pick up in a meaningful way over the next few quarters, Lyft is set to see a “Roaring 20’s-like” rebound into 2H with the red ink soon in the rearview mirror,” the 5-star analyst said.

What’s more, going by the quarter’s results and “underlying metrics,” Ives is increasingly confident the “clear demand rebound” puts the company on the right path to reach EBITDA profitability by the September quarter.

So, what does Ives like so much about Lyft’s report?

Well, on the top-line, Lyft reported revenue of $609 million, beating both Wedbush’s $524 million estimate and the Street’s call for $559 million. On the bottom-line, a Non-GAAP EPS of ($0.35) compared favorably to the consensus estimate of ($0.53), while also improving on Wedbush’s ($0.57) forecast.

Although the pandemic’s impact was still felt as active riders dropped year-over-year by 36.4% to 13.5 million, the decline was still better than Wedbush’ and the Street’s respective 11.2 million and 12.8 million estimates.

However, the star of the show, says Ives, was the EBITDA beat. Lyft delivered Adj. EBITDA of ($73) million beating Wall Street’s ($144) million forecast and well ahead of Ives’ ($149) million estimate.

According to Lyft, Adj. EBITDA is set to further improve in Q2, expected to show a loss of between $45-35 million. Revenue should also increase to between the $680 million and $700 million range.

“The tough but necessary cuts that Lyft has implemented into its business model are clear and present and remain a feather in the cap for the bulls as the company just delivered its best EBITDA performance in its history with revenue down 35% YoY, a great sign of leverage in the model,” the analyst summed up.

Ives keeps LYFT on Wedbush’s Best Ideas List and, unsurprisingly, reiterated an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating on the shares whilst sticking to an $85 price target. Investors could be sitting on gains of 72%, should Ives’ forecast play out accordingly. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)

Wall Street’s average price target is more modest, but at $72.04, is still anticipated to generate returns of 46% in the year ahead. Overall, the stock’s Moderate Buy consensus rating is based on 22 Buys and 10 Holds. (See Lyft stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.