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Is Novavax Stock a Buy Right Now? This Is What You Need to Know
Stock Analysis & Ideas

Is Novavax Stock a Buy Right Now? This Is What You Need to Know

Novavax (NVAX) has finally managed to secure the coveted EUA for its Covid-19 vaccine but now it remains to be seen whether the approval can provide a sustained tailwind.

Ahead of the biotech’s Q2 print (anticipated early August), Jefferies’ Roger Song thinks the company will meet Street expectations and generate revenues of ~$1 billion, while the analyst also anticipates Novavax will reiterate its 2022 guidance for revenue between ~$4-5 billion.

Although there are a few uncertainties regarding 2H22 which could probably impact the stock’s trajectory – these include GAVI renegotiation, EU demand and booster/Omicron timing – looking further ahead, Song expects Novavax to stake its claim as a significant force in the global Covid-19 vaccine industry.

“For the long term,” the analyst opined, “we note booster/Omicron data/approvals and new orders/contracts upon demand will be critical and remain confident that NVAX will be a major CV19 vaccine player, capturing ~10-30% of long-term market share in the future ~$5-10B+ market.”

According to the latest update from the company, the U.S. government has already secured 3.2 million doses. That could rise up to 100 million eventually.

“Importantly,” says Song, “the vast majority of the outstanding ~$800M government funding will be clinical reimbursement (~50/50 in ’22/’23).” In the unlikely event Novavax does not deliver any

vaccine doses to the US, it will still receive the most of ~$800 million.

The company also anticipates a data readout from the Phase 2/3 Omicron BA.1 mono-/bi-valent study in September to ready for Q4 BA.4/5 bivalent supply – the new strain now accounting for roughly half of the new U.S. Covid-19 cases. Before September, the company is also likely to file for a “prototype” booster EUA.

So, interesting times for Novavax, but what does it all mean for investors? All told, Song maintained a Buy rating, along with a $190 price target. Should the figure be met, investors will be pocketing gains of an impressive 222% in a year’s time. (To watch Song’s track record, click here)

The Street’s average target may not be quite as exuberant but at $126.5, the figure still leaves room for abundant growth of ~115% from current levels. With 7 Buys vs. 1 Hold and Sell, each, the analyst consensus rates this stock a Moderate Buy. (See Novavax stock forecast on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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