BioCryst (BCRX) might have missed the analysts’ estimates in 1Q22, but JMP analyst Jonathan Wolleben is encouraged by the progress being made on several fronts.
The company generated revenue of $49.9 million in the quarter, a 161.9% increase on the same period last year, but coming in shy of the $51.4 million the Street had in mind. Practically all the sales were driven by Orladeyo, the company’s FDA-approved treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE).
BioCryst’s net loss also widened, to more than $74 million, as EPS of -$0.40 also came in worse off than Wall Street’s call for -$0.37.
Management stated its 2022 revenue guidance of over $250 million remains, a target Wolleben thinks is “attainable” and so is the company’s expectation of peak sales above $1 billion. In fact, based on Orladeyo’s potential, Wolleben remains bullish on the company’s prospects.
“We would be continued buyers as the underlying Orladeyo launch dynamics continue to appear strong and the $1B opportunity for HAE alone represents substantial upside, especially at current levels,” the analyst explained.
These “current levels” account for a sharp drop in early April when the company paused enrollment in three phase 2 trials evaluating its experimental drug, oral Factor D inhibitor BCX9930. The halt was due to elevated serum creatinine levels seen in some patients. The FDA has now put BCX9930 on partial hold; after looking into the matter, the company thinks the high serum creatinine levels could be down to the 500 mg BID dose.
Both developments are positive, says Wolleben, who is pleased that, “1) BCRX has found a potential explanation for the serum creatinine elevations on ‘9930; 2) titration to a lower, but potentially as efficacious dose could resolve the issue; and 3) the FDA opted for a partial and not full clinical hold. We thought the pullback in BCRX shares on the enrollment pause was overdone due to the limited information at the time and the additional information points to a potential path forward.”
The company expects to meet the regulators and discuss the path forward by the end of Q3.
With shares down roughly 60% from February’s peak, Wolleben rates BCRX an Outperform (i.e. Buy). His $25 price target implies shares will climb ~202% over the next 12 months. (To watch Wolleben’s track record, click here)
Overall, BCRX maintains a Moderate Buy from the analyst consensus, based on 11 recent ratings. These include 7 Buys and 4 Holds. Shares are trading at $8.29, so the $17.40 average price target suggests room for about 110% upside. (See BCRX stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
