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Don’t Go Bargain Hunting on Aprea Stock, Says Analyst
Stock Analysis & Ideas

Don’t Go Bargain Hunting on Aprea Stock, Says Analyst

The stock market is often witness to extreme stock gyrations, though hardly any more so following the impact of clinical trial results – good or bad.

Unfortunately for Aprea Therapeutics (APRE), the stock’s latest move was down to the latter.

This week, Aprea shares cratered by 80% (yes, 80), after the biopharma’s lead therapeutic candidate failed to impress in a late-stage trial.

Specifically, in the Phase 3 trial of MDS (myelodysplastic syndrome) treatment eprenetapopt, the drug failed to meet the primary endpoint of complete remission (CR).

While the drug’s results improved on those of the control arm, they failed to do so in a statistically significant manner (33% vs 22.4%).

As the baseline characteristics were similar to those of the Phase 1 and 2 studies, the company is now further analyzing the data to understand the CR rate’s ~70% drop.

Meanwhile, focus will turn to other programs in Aprea’s pipeline, including in AML (acute myeloid leukemia), CLL (chronic lymphocytic leukemia), and solid tumors.

But for RBC analyst Gregory Renza, the damage is done, and the results necessitate a rejig of his Aprea model.

“While the company continues to proceed with other pipeline programs around eprenetapopt, we believe the news has an adverse read-through to the path forward and lowers our confidence in the potential of the molecule and the programs,” the 5-star analyst said. “We look to the data updates from the programs in 2021 for additional insights into the activity of epr and APR-548 in other indications, though we believe the MDS PE miss reads through to the earlier pipeline programs and lowers our expectation on the data readouts.”

Accordingly, Renza downgraded Aprea’s rating from Outperform (i.e. Buy) to Sector Perform (i.e. Hold) and slashed the price target from $40 to $10. That said, following the sharp share decline, there is still potential upside of a hefty 98% from current levels. (To watch Renza’s track record, click here)

Wall Street believes Renza is smart to play it safe when it comes to the Aprea’s prospects ahead, as TipRanks analytics reveal the stock as a Hold. Out of 5 analysts polled in the past week, four say Hold, while only one suggests Buy. With a potential upside of 46%, the consensus price target stands at $7.40. Yet, the analysts are not convinced the reward is worth all the risk. (See APRE stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for healthcare stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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