The week began in the best possible way for BioCryst (BCRX) investors. Shares saw out Monday’s session with 28% of gains attached to the ticker, as the market applauded preliminary fourth-quarter revenue numbers and very encouraging full-year projections.
The company said Orladeyo – the company’s treatment for the prevention of hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks – will reach 4Q21 sales of $45.6 million, a 23% sequential uptick and some way above consensus $42.6 million estimate.
Furthermore, looking ahead, the company expects more growth. BioCryst’s FY22 guidance calls for Orladeyo sales of at least $250 million – more than double FY21’s $122 million – while the company also increased its peak sales guidance to $1 billion from the prior $500 million.
To achieve 2022’s aim, BioCryst will need to show ~13% quarter-over-quarter growth next year. Based on the current momentum of Orladeyo’s adoption and feedback from Cantor’s prescriber survey – prescribers in the survey indicated they were highly satisfied with Orladeyo’s “efficacy and side effect profile” – analyst Brian Cheng believes it is an “easily achievable target.”
Cheng also notes key adoption measures such as new patient starts, new physicians added, coverage and patient retention “remain solid and continue to track favorably quarter over quarter.” Orladeyo has only been on the market for a little over a year, following FDA approval in December 2020 and has displayed a ~70% patient retention rate, “in line” with expectation and past trials.
Moreover, major payors are now covering Orladeyo and Cheng sees this development as a catalyst for the substantial amount of patients who remain on free drugs to “convert to commercial products.”
Despite the surge, Cheng believes believe BCRX shares remain “underappreciated by investors” with a valuation “disconnected from its fundamentals.”
Accordingly, the analyst rates BCRX an Overweight (i.e. Buy) and his $21 price target suggests shares will climb ~28% over the next 12 months. (To watch Cheng’s track record, click here)
Two skeptics aside, all other 8 recent analyst reviews are positive, providing BCRX with a Strong Buy consensus rating. The $21.10 average target is just slightly above Cheng’s objective. (See BCRX stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
