Without a doubt, Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) is one of the year’s success stories. Heading into 2020, INO shares were going for $3.30 apiece. The stock is now priced at $13.30, an increase of a hefty 303%.
As for how the biotech accumulated such impressive gains, the company has positioned itself as one to watch with its COVID-19 DNA vaccine candidate, INO-4800.
However, even as investors’ optimism surges, some remain more skeptical. Among the skeptics is RBC Capital analyst Gregory Renza.
The 5-star analyst rates INO shares a Sector Perform (i.e. Hold) along with a $10 price target. In other words, Renza expects shares to come down by a considerable 25% over the next year. (To watch Renza’s track record, click here)
That’s not to say Renza thinks Inovio is doing anything particularly wrong. The promising preclinical data for the biotech’s COVID-19 DNA vaccine candidate, and overall progress – INO-4800 is currently in a Phase 1 trial with interim data expected in June and initiation of a larger Phase 2/3 trial expected in the summer – has impressed Renza. That being said, the analyst remains apprehensive when considering Inovio’s chances of bringing a viable solution to market.
Renza said, “We are encouraged by the swift progress of the program, and increased our PoS (probability of success) for the accelerated development timeline scenario to 70% (from 50%) though we maintain our 25% level of ultimate success, and continue to monitor the development of the INO-4800 story and larger landscape.”
Furthermore, after speaking to key opinion leaders (KOLs), Renza is concerned with another issue. Although encouraged by the early data, the KOLs have expressed doubt regarding the 12-18 month timeline for the vaccine, as more data will be required to “understand the protection levels of immune responses and the physiology of the responses.” Additionally, as highlighted by one KOL, the 12-18-month timeline “could be deemed aggressive, and can only be achieved if ‘everything goes well’.”
Overall, Renza’s colleagues take a more positive view. The consensus breakdown of 5 Buys and 3 Holds coalesce into a Moderate Buy consensus rating. With an average price target of $16.71, the analysts forecast possible upside of 27% over the next 12 months. (See Inovio stock analysis on TipRanks)
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