Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) stock has fallen 0.4% over the past week, 5.0% over the past month, and a steep 40.4% over the last 12 months, leaving many investors cautious. Yet Wall Street’s analysts remain firmly bullish, with a StrongBuy consensus and a 12‑month average price target of $191.19, implying a substantial upside from the last closing price of $107.00.
Among the latest voices, analyst Gary Yu of Morgan Stanley reiterated his Buy rating on BABA on October 8, 2026, keeping a price target of $180.00, which suggests about 68% upside from current levels. Yu ranks 11,030 out of 12,450 analysts on TipRanks, with a 36.0% success rate and an average return of -4.6% per rating, metrics that may prompt some investors to weigh his call alongside broader market views.
In his report, Yu highlights Alibaba’s powerful mix of cloud growth and resilient e‑commerce as key drivers for a turnaround. He expects external cloud revenue to grow 55% year over year, with overall cloud revenue rising above 50%, while cloud EBITA margins are projected to improve to 13.5% and potentially reach around 15% in the December quarter.
Yu also notes that Alibaba’s core e‑commerce business remains solid despite weak Chinese consumption, with customer management revenue down 5% year over year but up 1% on a like‑for‑like basis. Total e‑commerce EBITA is estimated at RMB 37.5 billion, growing at a low single‑digit rate, while losses at the “QC” segment and AI labs and apps are narrowing as unit economics improve.
Looking ahead, management plans to build roughly half of its 20GW capacity by 2032 in‑house, with the rest leased or managed, while keeping capex forecasts at RMB 250 billion for fiscal 2027 and RMB 260 billion for fiscal 2028. Yu reiterates Alibaba as an Overweight Top Pick, arguing that a 13x FY28 P/E and raised EBITA estimates for FY27‑28 make the current valuation compelling for long‑term investors. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.